--- title: "Lapidary case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lapidary ($47.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 83.01% over 58 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lapidary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lapidary A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary?window=all) Price · $47.77 · 68.24 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $43.43 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.01% · 58 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 44 openings · below min 30 days · 58 openings · below min since tracking started · 58 openings · below min -0.5% 91.3% 183.0% **Small sample.** 58 openings and 9.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary?window=24h) | 8 | 80.73% ±101.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary?window=7d) | 44 | 79.44% ±43.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary) | 58 | 83.01% ±38.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lapidary?window=all) | 58 | 83.01% ±38.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 250 | $695 993 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $643 918 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $449 642 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $365 521 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $146 209 coins | 16.8% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $125 178 coins | 8.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $78.40 112 coins | 12.6% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.48× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $67.53 96.47 coins | 15.6% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $53.94 77.06 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 10.0% | $22.48 32.12 coins | 5.2% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) | 10.0% | $21.00 30 coins | 4.8% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 13.5% | $19.25 27.5 coins | 6.0% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 10.0% | $17.07 24.38 coins | 3.9% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 10.0% | $12.29 17.56 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× | | [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 0.1% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lapidary) [Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $19.25 27.5 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $21.00 30 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $47.77 68.24 coins $146 209 coins 3.06x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $19.25 27.5 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 04:54 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $12.29 17.56 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 04:54 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $22.48 32.12 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 04:54 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) [Spud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spud) $47.77 68.24 coins $67.53 96.47 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 04:54 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $19.25 27.5 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 03:06 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.77 68.24 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.64x 2026-11-10 03:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $47.77 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.77 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $47.21 | 90.90% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.34 | 90.90% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.5% mil spec 20.0% red 3.0% covert 22.0% classified 43.5% uncommon 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt