--- title: "Last Resort case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Last Resort ($18.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.28% over 7,921 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Last Resort](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Last Resort A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort?window=all) Price · $18.68 · 26.69 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $16.98 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.28% · 7,921 openings, odds method Variance · 12.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.45% ±21.50 1,004 openings 7 days · 84.93% ±8.56 6,369 openings 30 days · 88.28% ±7.68 7,921 openings since tracking started · 88.28% ±7.68 7,921 openings 58.5% 80.5% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort?window=24h) | 1,004 | 80.45% ±21.5 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort?window=7d) | 6,369 | 84.93% ±8.56 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort) | 7,921 | 88.28% ±7.68 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/last-resort?window=all) | 7,921 | 88.28% ±7.68 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,921 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,047 1,495 coins | 6.2% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.88× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $582 832 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $552 788 coins | 3.2% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.88× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $382 545 coins | 6.7% | 21 | 23.8 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 333 | $329 470 coins | 5.8% | 18 | 23.8 | 0.76× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $260 371 coins | 27.5% | 158 | 142.6 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $210 300 coins | 4.9% | 29 | 31.7 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $174 248 coins | 15.3% | 107 | 118.8 | 0.90× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 143 | $147 210 coins | 6.1% | 47 | 55.4 | 0.85× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $81.20 116 coins | 22.9% | 380 | 379.4 | 1.00× | | [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 90.0% | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.9% | 7,146 | 7128.9 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [Iglo\_Fisch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Iglo_Fisch) $19.09 27.27 coins $1,053 1,504 coins 55.15x 2026-11-07 23:37 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $1,053 1,504 coins 55.15x 2026-11-05 07:20 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $1,053 1,504 coins 55.15x 2026-11-05 02:57 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $1,053 1,504 coins 55.15x 2026-11-04 09:02 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $1,053 1,504 coins 55.15x 2026-11-03 20:49 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $1,053 1,504 coins 55.15x 2026-11-02 23:18 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [Rostdel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rostdel) $18.68 26.68 coins $1,047 1,495 coins 56.03x 2026-11-10 17:38 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $593 847 coins 31.06x 2026-11-03 08:27 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $561 802 coins 29.41x 2026-11-07 14:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.09 27.27 coins $561 802 coins 29.41x 2026-11-04 09:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=last-resort) [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $174 248 coins 9.29x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $18.68 26.69 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $18.68 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.68 | 90.90% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.09 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% restricted 0.1% exotic 0.3% mil spec 1.8% extraordinary 4.8% industrial 90.0% best hit $1,053 (55.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt