--- title: "Lawnmower case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lawnmower ($16.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 19 items with odds, observed 92.13% over 1,724 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lawnmower](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lawnmower A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower?window=all) Price · $16.51 · 23.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $15.01 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.13% · 1,724 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.21% ±25.99 120 openings 7 days · 93.51% ±7.23 1,502 openings 30 days · 92.13% ±6.74 1,724 openings since tracking started · 92.13% ±6.74 1,724 openings 71.5% 98.3% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower?window=24h) | 120 | 98.21% ±26.0 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower?window=7d) | 1,502 | 93.51% ±7.23 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower) | 1,724 | 92.13% ±6.74 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lawnmower?window=all) | 1,724 | 92.13% ±6.74 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,748 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,037 2,910 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 1 in 13,333 | $865 1,235 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $277 396 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $166 237 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $165 235 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 667 | $147 210 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $108 154 coins | 3.6% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $93.80 134 coins | 15.6% | 46 | 43.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $79.10 113 coins | 6.6% | 24 | 21.9 | 1.10× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $50.47 72.1 coins | 17.7% | 94 | 91.8 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $13.61 19.45 coins | 7.5% | 148 | 144.2 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.55 19.35 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 10.0% | $11.80 16.86 coins | 7.9% | 174 | 174.8 | 1.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.79 15.42 coins | 7.2% | 213 | 174.8 | 1.22× | | [Lieutenant 'Tree Hugger' Farlow \| SWAT agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/lieutenant-tree-hugger-farlow-swat) | 10.0% | $10.64 15.2 coins | 7.1% | 169 | 174.8 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $10.15 14.5 coins | 6.8% | 148 | 174.8 | 0.85× | | [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 13.3% | $6.05 8.64 coins | 5.4% | 227 | 232.2 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $5.26 7.52 coins | 5.8% | 281 | 288.4 | 0.97× | | [Nova \| Interlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $4.12 5.89 coins | 3.3% | 209 | 209.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lawnmower) [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [POOF](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/POOF) $16.51 23.59 coins $6.05 8.64 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.51 23.59 coins $10.15 14.5 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Lieutenant 'Tree Hugger' Farlow | SWAT agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/lieutenant-tree-hugger-farlow-swat) Hidden $16.51 23.59 coins $10.64 15.2 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [AUG | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.51 23.59 coins $5.26 7.52 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.51 23.59 coins $6.05 8.64 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.51 23.59 coins $10.15 14.5 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) [POOF](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/POOF) $16.51 23.59 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [AUG | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.51 23.59 coins $5.26 7.52 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-minimal-wear) [Heffa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Heffa) $16.51 23.59 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-minimal-wear) [Wcale nie Alfred](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Wcale%20nie%20Alfred) $16.51 23.59 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.51 | 90.90% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.70 | 90.92% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.65 | 90.92% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.4% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 17.1% industrial 18.3% classified 33.3% exceptional 10.0% mil spec 12.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt