--- title: "Lemonade case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lemonade ($35.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 100.19% over 864 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lemonade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lemonade A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade?window=all) Price · $35.22 · 50.31 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $32.02 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.19% · 864 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85 openings · below min 7 days · 99.77% ±9.17 736 openings 30 days · 100.19% ±8.48 864 openings since tracking started · 100.19% ±8.48 864 openings 90.0% 125.3% 160.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.71% – 108.67%, 864 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade?window=24h) | 85 | 133.64% ±26.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade?window=7d) | 736 | 99.77% ±9.17 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade) | 864 | 100.19% ±8.48 | +2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lemonade?window=all) | 864 | 100.19% ±8.48 | +2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 864 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $374 534 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $320 457 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $197 281 coins | 3.1% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.85× | | [★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $110 157 coins | 3.4% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 12.0% | $104 148 coins | 38.8% | 119 | 103.7 | 1.15× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $92.40 132 coins | 11.5% | 46 | 34.6 | 1.33× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $84.00 120 coins | 6.6% | 19 | 21.6 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 20.0% | $38.49 54.99 coins | 24.0% | 174 | 172.8 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $21.55 30.78 coins | 5.4% | 56 | 69.1 | 0.81× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 25.0% | $3.12 4.46 coins | 2.4% | 216 | 216.0 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 26.6% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 0.5% | 215 | 229.8 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lemonade) [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) Hidden $35.22 50.31 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) Hidden $35.22 50.31 coins $3.12 4.46 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) Hidden $35.22 50.31 coins $38.49 54.99 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $35.22 50.31 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) Hidden $35.22 50.31 coins $38.49 54.99 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) Hidden $35.22 50.31 coins $104 148 coins 2.94x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) Hidden $35.25 50.36 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $35.25 50.36 coins $84.00 120 coins 2.38x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) Hidden $35.25 50.36 coins $21.55 30.78 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) [Fuksas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuksas) $35.25 50.36 coins $38.49 54.99 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $35.22 | 90.91% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $35.25 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.26 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.09 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $35.23 | 90.91% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $35.26 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.25 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 13.9% classified 14.5% restricted 45.0% mil spec 26.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt