--- title: "Level case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Level ($18.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 23 items with odds, observed 92.26% over 3,958 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Level](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Level A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level?window=all) Price · $18.38 · 26.25 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $16.70 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.26% · 3,958 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.24% ±19.22 500 openings 7 days · 91.11% ±8.14 2,794 openings 30 days · 92.26% ±6.85 3,958 openings since tracking started · 92.26% ±6.85 3,958 openings 50.5% 75.3% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level?window=24h) | 500 | 70.24% ±19.2 | −2.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level?window=7d) | 2,794 | 91.11% ±8.14 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level) | 3,958 | 92.26% ±6.85 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/level?window=all) | 3,958 | 92.26% ±6.85 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,958 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $709 1,013 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 250,000 | $638 912 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $273 390 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $255 364 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $241 345 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $202 288 coins | 45.7% | 154 | 149.7 | 1.03× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $188 268 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $162 231 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $158 226 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $156 223 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| qikert (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-qikert-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 250 | $133 190 coins | 3.2% | 12 | 15.8 | 0.76× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 556 | $113 162 coins | 1.2% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $106 151 coins | 0.5% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.89× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.71 56.73 coins | 11.9% | 208 | 197.9 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $30.11 43.02 coins | 2.5% | 55 | 55.6 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $21.74 31.06 coins | 11.1% | 330 | 336.4 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 14 | $17.67 25.25 coins | 7.4% | 287 | 277.1 | 1.04× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $13.14 18.77 coins | 9.8% | 509 | 495.6 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 11.0% | $8.13 11.61 coins | 5.4% | 414 | 435.4 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 960 | 989.5 | 0.97× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,010 | 989.5 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=level) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins $8.13 11.61 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) [Baaqz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Baaqz) $18.38 26.25 coins $202 288 coins 10.97x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Baaqz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Baaqz) $18.38 26.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $18.38 26.25 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.38 | 90.90% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.54 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.79 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% extraordinary 0.4% epic 0.0% rare 0.1% classified 37.1% restricted 1.4% remarkable 7.0% consumer 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt