--- title: "Life or Death case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Life or Death ($4,683.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 55.70% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Life or Death](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Life or Death A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death?window=all) Price · $4,683.34 · 6,690 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $4,257.58 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.70% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 45.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 11 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min -0.5% 74.5% 149.5% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death?window=24h) | 3 | 10.72% ±138.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death?window=7d) | 11 | 43.01% ±71.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death) | 14 | 55.70% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/life-or-death?window=all) | 14 | 55.70% ±63.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 67 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9,370 13,385 coins | 11.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 35.0% | $6,787 9,695 coins | 55.8% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4,655 6,650 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $4,197 5,995 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 17 | $665 950 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 39.5% | $531 758 coins | 4.9% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $445 636 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 2.23x 2026-11-08 05:07 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $7,112 10,160 coins 1.47x 2026-11-07 03:20 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [Coffin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Coffin) $4,847 6,924 coins $7,112 10,160 coins 1.47x 2026-11-04 12:49 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $7,112 10,160 coins 1.47x 2026-11-03 23:14 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [LiteJord](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LiteJord) $4,847 6,924 coins $543 775 coins 0.11x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $543 775 coins 0.11x 2026-11-05 20:44 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $543 775 coins 0.11x 2026-11-05 10:51 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $543 775 coins 0.11x 2026-11-04 00:28 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,683 6,690 coins $531 758 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,683 6,690 coins $531 758 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=life-or-death) [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,683 6,690 coins $531 758 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $4,683 6,690 coins $445 636 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,683 6,690 coins $531 758 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [YT/AugustGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/YT%2FAugustGambles) $4,683 6,690 coins $531 758 coins 0.11x 2026-11-09 21:05 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [Kroken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kroken) $4,683 6,690 coins $531 758 coins 0.11x 2026-11-09 06:51 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 2.23x 2026-11-08 05:07 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $7,112 10,160 coins 1.47x 2026-11-07 03:20 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [LiteJord](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LiteJord) $4,847 6,924 coins $543 775 coins 0.11x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $543 775 coins 0.11x 2026-11-05 20:44 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $4,847 6,924 coins $445 635 coins 0.09x 2026-11-05 13:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4,683 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4,847 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 5.0% contraband 1.0% covert 94.0% best hit $10.8K (2.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt