--- title: "Lifeline case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lifeline ($3.95) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.96% over 16.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lifeline](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lifeline A case on CSGORoll (knives, 40%, gloves, 50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline?window=all) Price · $3.95 · 5.64 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $3.59 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.96% · 16.4K openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 48.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 51.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.60% ±10.47 1,553 openings 7 days · 94.32% ±3.41 14.3K openings 30 days · 93.96% ±3.18 16.4K openings since tracking started · 93.96% ±3.18 16.4K openings 82.5% 93.5% 104.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline?window=24h) | 1,553 | 93.60% ±10.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline?window=7d) | 14.3K | 94.32% ±3.41 | +2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline) | 16.4K | 93.96% ±3.18 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lifeline?window=all) | 16.4K | 93.96% ±3.18 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $627 896 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $563 804 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.04× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $297 424 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× | | [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) | 1 in 5,000 | $172 245 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.14× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $118 168 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $55.67 79.53 coins | 0.8% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $54.03 77.18 coins | 1.5% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 3.6% | 44 | 49.1 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $27.62 39.45 coins | 3.8% | 103 | 81.8 | 1.26× | | [Health Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/health-pin) | 1 in 125 | $19.50 27.86 coins | 4.3% | 133 | 130.9 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $9.02 12.89 coins | 2.5% | 184 | 163.6 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Health (Gold) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-health-gold) | 1 in 50 | $8.81 12.59 coins | 4.9% | 384 | 327.3 | 1.17× | | [Sous-Lieutenant Medic \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/sous-lieutenant-medic-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 40 | $7.95 11.36 coins | 5.5% | 344 | 409.1 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 41.0% | $4.29 6.13 coins | 49.0% | 6,650 | 6709.2 | 0.99× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) | 51.7% | $1.36 1.94 coins | 19.5% | 8,479 | 8456.9 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $4.01 5.73 coins $552 788 coins 137.5x 2026-11-06 19:00 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 5.71 coins $552 788 coins 138.0x 2026-11-04 22:16 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) [Lazer Larry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lazer%20Larry) $3.99 5.7 coins $552 788 coins 138.2x 2026-11-04 04:02 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.00 5.71 coins $298 425 coins 74.43x 2026-11-06 06:30 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.99 5.7 coins $298 425 coins 74.56x 2026-11-04 15:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lifeline) [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) [furis med snoken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/furis%20med%20snoken) $3.95 5.64 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $3.95 5.64 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $3.95 5.64 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $3.95 5.64 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $3.95 | 90.93% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.95 | 90.88% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.01 | 90.89% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.01 | 90.90% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.01 | 90.95% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $4.00 | 90.84% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $3.99 | 90.95% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.12 | 90.87% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.9% legendary 0.0% covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% remarkable 0.8% restricted 1.0% exotic 2.0% exceptional 2.5% #4b69ff 41.0% base 51.7% best hit $552 (137.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt