--- title: "Lightning Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lightning Case ($52.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 98.92% over 154 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lightning Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lightning Case A case on CSGORoll (hot), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case?window=all) Price · $52.68 · 75.26 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.90 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.92% · 154 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 95.91% ±30.32 122 openings 30 days · 98.92% ±27.01 154 openings since tracking started · 98.92% ±27.01 154 openings 65.0% 96.0% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case?window=7d) | 122 | 95.91% ±30.3 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case) | 154 | 98.92% ±27.0 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning-case?window=all) | 154 | 98.92% ±27.0 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $811 1,159 coins | 5.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $440 628 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $404 577 coins | 10.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $279 398 coins | 7.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.62× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $260 371 coins | 10.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $167 239 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $158 225 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $114 163 coins | 7.1% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $113 161 coins | 10.6% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.15× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $91.70 131 coins | 3.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $84.70 121 coins | 3.5% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $80.50 115 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $63.80 91.14 coins | 2.7% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.27× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $40.21 57.44 coins | 4.2% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× | | [MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) | 15.0% | $17.09 24.41 coins | 5.4% | 22 | 23.1 | 0.95× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $14.55 20.78 coins | 3.0% | 23 | 15.2 | 1.51× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $5.07 7.24 coins | 1.6% | 24 | 23.1 | 1.04× | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.01 7.15 coins | 1.6% | 14 | 23.1 | 0.61× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.51 5.01 coins | 1.1% | 23 | 23.1 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) Hidden $53.47 76.39 coins $838 1,197 coins 15.67x 2026-11-05 06:27 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) Hidden $53.47 76.39 coins $838 1,197 coins 15.67x 2026-11-03 10:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lightning-case) [Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $52.68 75.26 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 18:14 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $91.70 131 coins 1.74x 2026-11-09 18:14 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $14.55 20.78 coins 0.28x 2026-11-09 18:14 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) [Crly-H34D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Crly-H34D) $52.68 75.26 coins $5.07 7.24 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 08:10 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $260 371 coins 4.93x 2026-11-09 08:10 UTC [MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 0.32x 2026-11-09 08:10 UTC [MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 0.32x 2026-11-09 08:10 UTC [Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) [No..Ie](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/No..Ie) $52.68 75.26 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 01:38 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $3.51 5.01 coins 0.07x 2026-11-09 01:38 UTC [MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-irradiated-alert-factory-new) Hidden $52.68 75.26 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 0.32x 2026-11-09 01:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $52.68 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $52.70 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.47 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 45.4% covert 16.4% restricted 18.2% mil spec 2.0% industrial 3.0% consumer 15.0% best hit $838 (15.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt