---
title: "Lightning case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lightning ($146.39) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 95.45% over 292 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lightning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lightning

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning?window=all)

Price · $146.39 · 209 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $133.08 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.45% · 292 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59 openings · below min

7 days · 95.29% ±9.33 286 openings

30 days · 95.45% ±9.24 292 openings

since tracking started · 95.45% ±9.24 292 openings

64.5% 85.8% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning?window=24h) | 59 | 85.73% ±20.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning?window=7d) | 286 | 95.29% ±9.33 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning) | 292 | 95.45% ±9.24 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightning?window=all) | 292 | 95.45% ±9.24 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 292 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $899 1,285 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $617 882 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $493 705 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $448 640 coins | 16.8% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $346 494 coins | 13.0% | 23 | 14.6 | 1.58× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $151 215 coins | 7.9% | 21 | 20.4 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $119 170 coins | 7.2% | 14 | 23.4 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $118 168 coins | 8.8% | 30 | 29.2 | 1.03× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $104 148 coins | 3.9% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.16× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $103 147 coins | 2.3% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.14× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $95.90 137 coins | 5.8% | 20 | 23.4 | 0.86× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $95.90 137 coins | 6.5% | 32 | 26.3 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 15.0% | $89.60 128 coins | 10.1% | 35 | 43.8 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 23.4% | $57.77 82.53 coins | 10.2% | 70 | 68.3 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $146 209 coins $899 1,285 coins 6.14x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lightning)

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) Hidden $146 209 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $146 209 coins $57.77 82.53 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) [★ UnToUcHaBlE ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%85%20UnToUcHaBlE%20%E2%84%A2) $146 209 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) Hidden $146 209 coins $57.77 82.53 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $146 209 coins $95.90 137 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 09:15 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $146 209 coins $95.90 137 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $146 209 coins $104 148 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) Hidden $146 209 coins $57.77 82.53 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $146 209 coins $104 148 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) Hidden $146 209 coins $346 494 coins 2.36x 2026-11-11 08:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $149 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 82.0% extraordinary 3.0% classified 15.0% best hit $899 (6.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt