---
title: "Lights Out case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Lights Out ($21.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 18 items with odds, observed 83.59% over 3,760 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lights Out](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lights Out

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out?window=all)

Price · $21.20 · 30.29 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $19.27 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.59% · 3,760 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.27% ±18.71 450 openings

7 days · 83.21% ±6.98 3,310 openings

30 days · 83.59% ±6.55 3,760 openings

since tracking started · 83.59% ±6.55 3,760 openings

64.0% 83.3% 102.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.04% – 90.14%, 3,760 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out?window=24h) | 450 | 83.27% ±18.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out?window=7d) | 3,310 | 83.21% ±6.98 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out) | 3,760 | 83.59% ±6.55 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lights-out?window=all) | 3,760 | 83.59% ±6.55 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,760 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,076 2,965 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $784 1,120 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $563 804 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,500 | $418 597 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $283 404 coins | 1.2% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.66× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $234 334 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| jdm64 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jdm64-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 250 | $209 298 coins | 4.3% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $174 248 coins | 4.5% | 25 | 18.8 | 1.33× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $133 190 coins | 1.4% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| [Sticker \| RUSH (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 100 | $125 178 coins | 6.5% | 28 | 37.6 | 0.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $125 178 coins | 17.8% | 87 | 103.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $74.90 107 coins | 2.3% | 17 | 22.6 | 0.75× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $49.23 70.33 coins | 3.8% | 53 | 56.4 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $36.08 51.55 coins | 37.4% | 728 | 752.0 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $25.44 36.34 coins | 3.6% | 99 | 103.4 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 15.0% | $12.62 18.03 coins | 9.8% | 606 | 564.0 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.24 1.77 coins | 1.6% | 935 | 940.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) | 30.0% | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.3% | 1,154 | 1128.0 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lights-out)

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $1.24 1.77 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $1.24 1.77 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $1.24 1.77 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $1.24 1.77 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $21.20 30.29 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[Sticker | Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Sticker | Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Sticker | Speedy T sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-speedy-t) [User#370](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23370) $21.20 30.29 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.20 30.29 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $21.20 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.22 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.65 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.66 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 23.4% rare 0.1% extraordinary 2.3% mil spec 1.5% classified 17.8% restricted 25.0% high 30.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt