--- title: "Lightspeed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lightspeed ($249.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 96.20% over 238 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lightspeed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lightspeed A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed?window=all) Price · $249.27 · 356 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $226.61 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.20% · 238 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 98.44% ±9.74 196 openings 30 days · 96.20% ±8.83 238 openings since tracking started · 96.20% ±8.83 238 openings 78.5% 102.0% 125.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed?window=24h) | 36 | 101.87% ±22.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed?window=7d) | 196 | 98.44% ±9.74 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed) | 238 | 96.20% ±8.83 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lightspeed?window=all) | 238 | 96.20% ±8.83 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 238 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $971 1,387 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 40 | $855 1,221 coins | 9.4% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.68× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 67 | $816 1,165 coins | 5.4% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.68× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $587 838 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 11 | $484 692 coins | 19.2% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $436 623 coins | 6.5% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 18 | $209 299 coins | 5.2% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 18.0% | $207 296 coins | 16.5% | 46 | 42.8 | 1.07× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 12.0% | $154 220 coins | 8.2% | 35 | 28.6 | 1.23× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 20.0% | $152 217 coins | 13.4% | 48 | 47.6 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 20.0% | $113 162 coins | 10.0% | 40 | 47.6 | 0.84× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $103 147 coins | 3.2% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $252 360 coins $874 1,248 coins 3.47x 2026-11-07 20:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $252 360 coins $874 1,248 coins 3.47x 2026-11-06 23:47 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $252 360 coins $874 1,248 coins 3.47x 2026-11-05 21:06 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $252 360 coins $874 1,248 coins 3.47x 2026-11-05 19:23 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $252 360 coins $874 1,248 coins 3.47x 2026-11-04 21:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [sakalaka bum bum](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sakalaka%20bum%20bum) $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-10 17:02 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lightspeed) [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $249 356 coins $484 692 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $249 356 coins $113 162 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:47 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $855 1,221 coins 3.43x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $249 356 coins $113 162 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $249 356 coins $113 162 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $436 623 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $249 356 coins $209 299 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $249 356 coins $154 220 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Sticker | JW (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jw-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $249 356 coins $484 692 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $249 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $252 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 16.3% covert 83.7% best hit $874 (3.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt