---
title: "Lilium case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lilium ($11.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 13 items with odds, observed 93.65% over 1,317 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lilium](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lilium

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium?window=all)

Price · $11.92 · 17.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $10.84 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.65% · 1,317 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.91% ±10.55 154 openings

7 days · 92.78% ±3.86 1,121 openings

30 days · 93.65% ±3.56 1,317 openings

since tracking started · 93.65% ±3.56 1,317 openings

83.5% 94.8% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium?window=24h) | 154 | 94.91% ±10.6 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium?window=7d) | 1,121 | 92.78% ±3.86 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium) | 1,317 | 93.65% ±3.56 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lilium?window=all) | 1,317 | 93.65% ±3.56 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,317 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Patch \| Dead Men patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dead-men) | 1 in 667 | $63.06 90.09 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $63.03 90.04 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $48.19 68.84 coins | 4.4% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $30.00 42.86 coins | 8.6% | 52 | 40.8 | 1.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $28.39 40.56 coins | 3.9% | 20 | 19.8 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $18.79 26.84 coins | 2.6% | 25 | 19.8 | 1.27× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $15.62 22.31 coins | 14.4% | 125 | 131.7 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 15.0% | $15.11 21.58 coins | 20.9% | 204 | 197.5 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $11.20 16 coins | 3.6% | 54 | 46.1 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 15.5% | $10.53 15.04 coins | 15.1% | 199 | 204.1 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 15.5% | $7.14 10.2 coins | 10.2% | 182 | 204.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 17.7% | $6.57 9.38 coins | 10.7% | 251 | 233.1 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-well-worn) | 15.3% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 3.2% | 186 | 201.5 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lilium)

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [steffyow;D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/steffyow%3BD) $11.92 17.03 coins $6.57 9.38 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-field-tested) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $7.14 10.2 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $11.20 16 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $6.57 9.38 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $10.53 15.04 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $15.11 21.58 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $10.53 15.04 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $15.11 21.58 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $11.92 17.03 coins $48.19 68.84 coins 4.04x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.92 17.03 coins $6.57 9.38 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.92 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $12.12 | 90.89% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.15 | 90.92% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.1% mil spec 15.6% covert 1.0% Ancient 4.6% rare 1.5% classified 27.7% #d32ee6 15.0% Mythical 3.5% #d32ce6 15.5% uncommon 15.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt