--- title: "Liminal case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Liminal ($207.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 95.39% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Liminal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Liminal A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal?window=all) Price · $207.75 · 297 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $188.86 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.39% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 39.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min 79.0% 95.5% 112.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 14.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal?window=7d) | 36 | 95.39% ±15.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal) | 36 | 95.39% ±15.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liminal?window=all) | 36 | 95.39% ±15.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $454 649 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $403 576 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $377 538 coins | 11.2% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $356 508 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $302 432 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $283 404 coins | 10.5% | 9 | 2.5 | 3.57× | | [Sticker \| Calyx (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-calyx-gold-boston-2018) | 20.0% | $255 364 coins | 27.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $223 318 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $203 290 coins | 9.7% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 12.0% | $142 203 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) | 20.0% | $96.60 138 coins | 10.2% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 18.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 7.1% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=liminal) [Sticker | Calyx (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-calyx-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $212 303 coins $255 364 coins 1.20x 2026-11-07 16:12 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $212 303 coins $312 446 coins 1.47x 2026-11-07 16:12 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $212 303 coins $301 430 coins 1.42x 2026-11-07 16:12 UTC [Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) [I lost my MBA tuition fee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20lost%20my%20MBA%20tuition%20fee) $212 303 coins $106 152 coins 0.50x 2026-11-07 16:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $212 303 coins $143 204 coins 0.67x 2026-11-06 23:48 UTC [Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $212 303 coins $106 152 coins 0.50x 2026-11-06 23:48 UTC [Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $212 303 coins $106 152 coins 0.50x 2026-11-06 23:48 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $212 303 coins $207 296 coins 0.98x 2026-11-06 23:48 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $212 303 coins $301 430 coins 1.42x 2026-11-05 19:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $212 303 coins $106 152 coins 0.50x 2026-11-05 19:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $208 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $207 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $212 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 57.7% epic 0.8% extraordinary 21.5% mil spec 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt