---
title: "Liquid Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Liquid Case ($29.25) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.69% over 2,491 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Liquid Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Liquid Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case?window=all)

Price · $29.25 · 41.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $26.59 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.69% · 2,491 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.37% ±11.76 259 openings

7 days · 88.46% ±4.08 2,109 openings

30 days · 89.69% ±3.75 2,491 openings

since tracking started · 89.69% ±3.75 2,491 openings

75.0% 87.5% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case?window=24h) | 259 | 87.37% ±11.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case?window=7d) | 2,109 | 88.46% ±4.08 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case) | 2,491 | 89.69% ±3.75 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid-case?window=all) | 2,491 | 89.69% ±3.75 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,492 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $493 705 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $116 166 coins | 13.1% | 82 | 74.8 | 1.10× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $115 164 coins | 2.9% | 14 | 16.7 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $62.27 88.95 coins | 4.7% | 42 | 49.8 | 0.84× |
| [MP7 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-factory-new) | 14.3% | $55.28 78.97 coins | 29.7% | 336 | 356.4 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 10.0% | $52.74 75.35 coins | 19.8% | 255 | 249.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 10.0% | $30.86 44.08 coins | 11.6% | 252 | 249.2 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $15.44 22.06 coins | 8.7% | 345 | 373.8 | 0.92× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.78 11.12 coins | 4.4% | 380 | 373.8 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.84 6.91 coins | 2.7% | 400 | 373.8 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.11 4.45 coins | 1.8% | 385 | 373.8 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $29.32 41.89 coins $507 725 coins 17.31x 2026-11-03 10:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=liquid-case)

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.25 41.78 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $29.25 41.78 coins $3.11 4.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.25 41.78 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $29.25 41.78 coins $55.28 78.97 coins 1.89x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $29.25 41.78 coins $116 166 coins 3.97x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.25 41.78 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $29.25 41.78 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $29.25 41.78 coins $30.86 44.08 coins 1.06x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC

[MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-factory-new) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $29.25 41.78 coins $55.28 78.97 coins 1.89x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) [Drew Peacock](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Drew%20Peacock) $29.25 41.78 coins $52.74 75.35 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.25 | 90.92% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.31 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.32 | 90.90% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.7% restricted 12.0% consumer 14.3% classified 10.0% industrial 15.0% mil spec 45.0% best hit $507 (17.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt