---
title: "Liquid case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Liquid ($29.44) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 94.84% over 2,264 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Liquid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Liquid

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid?window=all)

Price · $29.44 · 42.06 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $26.76 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.84% · 2,264 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.48% ±43.70 185 openings

7 days · 98.61% ±13.41 1,984 openings

30 days · 94.84% ±12.56 2,264 openings

since tracking started · 94.84% ±12.56 2,264 openings

42.0% 86.5% 131.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid?window=24h) | 185 | 86.48% ±43.7 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid?window=7d) | 1,984 | 98.61% ±13.4 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid) | 2,264 | 94.84% ±12.6 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/liquid?window=all) | 2,264 | 94.84% ±12.6 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,308 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,219 3,170 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,939 2,770 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,142 1,632 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.47× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $879 1,256 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $816 1,166 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $566 808 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $451 644 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $414 591 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $363 519 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $247 353 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $169 242 coins | 6.3% | 28 | 23.1 | 1.21× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $160 228 coins | 0.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $149 213 coins | 9.5% | 46 | 39.2 | 1.17× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $124 177 coins | 1.6% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $118 168 coins | 0.7% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $115 164 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $111 159 coins | 37.4% | 213 | 207.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $95.90 137 coins | 2.0% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $77.00 110 coins | 1.0% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $52.12 74.46 coins | 15.6% | 180 | 184.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $46.54 66.48 coins | 5.2% | 69 | 69.2 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 613 | 577.0 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 486 | 577.0 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 614 | 577.0 | 1.06× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $29.45 42.07 coins $2,219 3,170 coins 75.35x 2026-11-09 00:57 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $29.78 42.54 coins $1,224 1,748 coins 41.09x 2026-11-08 15:44 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $29.83 42.62 coins $1,224 1,748 coins 41.01x 2026-11-05 10:44 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 38.80x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 38.80x 2026-11-09 11:17 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $879 1,256 coins 29.86x 2026-11-10 22:46 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $29.83 42.62 coins $818 1,169 coins 27.43x 2026-11-04 23:19 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.83 42.62 coins $564 806 coins 18.91x 2026-11-08 08:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=liquid)

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $111 159 coins 3.78x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $111 159 coins 3.78x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [☯♥㊛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%AF%E2%99%A5%E3%8A%9B) $29.44 42.06 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [☯♥㊛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%AF%E2%99%A5%E3%8A%9B) $29.44 42.06 coins $52.12 74.46 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $52.12 74.46 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 09:29 UTC

[XM1014 | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $29.44 42.06 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $29.44 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.45 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.32 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.83 | 90.91% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.3% extraordinary 0.7% classified 1.0% industrial 75.0% best hit $2,219 (75.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt