--- title: "Lizard case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lizard ($265.55) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 106.17% over 33 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lizard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lizard A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard?window=all) Price · $265.55 · 379 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $241.41 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.17% · 33 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 33 openings · below min 30 days · 33 openings · below min since tracking started · 33 openings · below min 49.5% 106.3% 163.0% **Small sample.** 33 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard?window=7d) | 33 | 106.17% ±56.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard) | 33 | 106.17% ±56.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lizard?window=all) | 33 | 106.17% ±56.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,573 9,390 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $1,900 2,715 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $754 1,077 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $523 747 coins | 6.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 20 | $523 747 coins | 10.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 40 | $499 713 coins | 5.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 20 | $407 582 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 13 | $392 560 coins | 13.0% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $378 540 coins | 7.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.82× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 17 | $348 497 coins | 8.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $317 453 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 25.0% | $73.50 105 coins | 7.6% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $57.36 81.95 coins | 5.9% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.92 37.03 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $270 385 coins $1,131 1,616 coins 4.19x 2026-11-04 21:15 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $270 385 coins $545 778 coins 2.02x 2026-11-04 21:11 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $270 385 coins $532 760 coins 1.97x 2026-11-04 21:16 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $270 385 coins $532 760 coins 1.97x 2026-11-04 21:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $266 379 coins $523 747 coins 1.97x 2026-11-09 04:27 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $266 379 coins $523 747 coins 1.97x 2026-11-09 04:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $266 379 coins $523 747 coins 1.97x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lizard) [Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $266 379 coins $407 582 coins 1.53x 2026-11-09 04:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $266 379 coins $523 747 coins 1.97x 2026-11-09 04:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $266 379 coins $392 560 coins 1.48x 2026-11-09 04:27 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $266 379 coins $523 747 coins 1.97x 2026-11-09 04:26 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) Hidden $266 379 coins $57.36 81.95 coins 0.22x 2026-11-09 04:26 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-factory-new) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $266 379 coins $73.50 105 coins 0.28x 2026-11-09 04:26 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $266 379 coins $378 540 coins 1.42x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) Hidden $266 379 coins $57.36 81.95 coins 0.22x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $266 379 coins $523 747 coins 1.97x 2026-11-09 04:25 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $270 385 coins $25.86 36.94 coins 0.10x 2026-11-04 21:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $266 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $265 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $270 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 28.2% extraordinary 1.8% remarkable 5.0% restricted 5.0% classified 50.0% rare 10.0% best hit $1,131 (4.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt