---
title: "Loaded Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Loaded Case ($104.59) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 54 items with odds, observed 84.31% over 463 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Loaded Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Loaded Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case?window=all)

Price · $104.59 · 149 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $95.08 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.31% · 463 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 27 openings · below min

7 days · 85.38% ±17.39 384 openings

30 days · 84.31% ±15.85 463 openings

since tracking started · 84.31% ±15.85 463 openings

-0.5% 62.5% 125.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case?window=24h) | 27 | 59.84% ±64.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case?window=7d) | 384 | 85.38% ±17.4 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case) | 463 | 84.31% ±15.8 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loaded-case?window=all) | 463 | 84.31% ±15.8 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 463 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $11.6K 16,550 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,240 13,200 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $4,655 6,650 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,909 4,155 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,454 3,505 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,520 2,172 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,054 1,505 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $947 1,353 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $598 854 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $563 804 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $477 682 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $465 664 coins | 4.9% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.51× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $440 628 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $436 623 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $429 613 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 100 | $412 589 coins | 4.3% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.73× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 125 | $388 554 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $360 514 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $348 497 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 667 | $329 470 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $287 410 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $260 371 coins | 4.1% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.15× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $253 362 coins | 1.3% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $216 308 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $186 265 coins | 1.6% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $177 253 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $177 253 coins | 16.8% | 44 | 41.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $169 242 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $158 225 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $152 217 coins | 1.1% | 9 | 3.2 | 2.78× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $129 184 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $108 154 coins | 3.4% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $107 153 coins | 5.0% | 23 | 20.5 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $83.30 119 coins | 1.8% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $79.10 113 coins | 5.0% | 38 | 27.8 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $61.54 87.92 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $47.96 68.51 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $42.97 61.38 coins | 0.5% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $28.27 40.38 coins | 3.6% | 49 | 55.6 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $17.47 24.95 coins | 2.6% | 71 | 64.8 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $16.34 23.34 coins | 1.4% | 30 | 37.0 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.88 22.69 coins | 1.7% | 37 | 46.3 | 0.80× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $13.66 19.51 coins | 2.0% | 65 | 64.8 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $105 150 coins $1,149 1,642 coins 10.93x 2026-11-05 10:26 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) [Please let me pull](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Please%20let%20me%20pull) $105 150 coins $597 853 coins 5.68x 2026-11-06 09:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $105 150 coins $573 818 coins 5.45x 2026-11-04 03:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=loaded-case)

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $105 149 coins $13.66 19.51 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $105 149 coins $186 265 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $105 149 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $105 149 coins $107 153 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $105 149 coins $13.66 19.51 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) [560 HP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/560%20HP) $105 149 coins $28.27 40.38 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $105 149 coins $108 154 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $105 149 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC

[AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $105 149 coins $28.27 40.38 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) [560 HP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/560%20HP) $105 149 coins $17.47 24.95 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 33.0% contraband 0.0% legendary 0.0% classified 36.8% restricted 5.1% rare 0.2% epic 0.5% exotic 0.1% mil spec 23.5% extraordinary 0.8% best hit $1,149 (10.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt