--- title: "Locked case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Locked ($111.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 109.19% over 47 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Locked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Locked A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked?window=all) Price · $111.18 · 159 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $101.08 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 109.19% · 47 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 47 openings · below min 30 days · 47 openings · below min since tracking started · 47 openings · below min -0.5% 69.5% 139.5% **Small sample.** 47 openings and 7.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked?window=24h) | 10 | 64.24% ±64.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked?window=7d) | 47 | 109.19% ±29.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked) | 47 | 109.19% ±29.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/locked?window=all) | 47 | 109.19% ±29.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $745 1,064 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $605 864 coins | 12.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $377 538 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $287 410 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $255 365 coins | 10.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $218 311 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.13× | | [Sticker \| RpK (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rpk-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $185 264 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $164 234 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.42× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $121 173 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $105 150 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.42× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 18.5% | $67.63 96.61 coins | 12.4% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $49.83 71.18 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $46.51 66.44 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 18.0% | $44.47 63.53 coins | 7.9% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.95× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $36.44 52.06 coins | 6.5% | 12 | 8.5 | 1.42× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $32.44 46.34 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Edu-Bruh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Edu-Bruh) $112 160 coins $629 899 coins 5.62x 2026-11-05 15:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $629 899 coins 5.62x 2026-11-05 15:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $112 160 coins $629 899 coins 5.62x 2026-11-04 19:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=locked) [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) Hidden $111 159 coins $105 150 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 23:36 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) Hidden $111 159 coins $67.63 96.61 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 23:36 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) Hidden $111 159 coins $67.63 96.61 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 23:36 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $111 159 coins $105 150 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 23:36 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) Hidden $111 159 coins $32.44 46.34 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) Hidden $111 159 coins $105 150 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) Hidden $111 159 coins $67.63 96.61 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC [P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $111 159 coins $46.51 66.44 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) Hidden $111 159 coins $67.63 96.61 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $111 159 coins $49.83 71.18 coins 0.45x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $111 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $111 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $112 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 28.5% classified 20.0% covert 23.0% restricted 22.5% mil spec 6.0% best hit $629 (5.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt