--- title: "Longshot case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Longshot ($221.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 56.38% over 64 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Longshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Longshot A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot?window=all) Price · $221.21 · 316 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $201.10 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 56.38% · 64 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 64 openings · below min 30 days · 64 openings · below min since tracking started · 64 openings · below min -0.5% 60.8% 122.0% **Small sample.** 64 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot?window=24h) | 30 | 60.37% ±60.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot?window=7d) | 64 | 56.38% ±41.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot) | 64 | 56.38% ±41.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/longshot?window=all) | 64 | 56.38% ±41.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 345 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 19.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,802 2,575 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,411 2,015 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $920 1,315 coins | 13.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $454 649 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $436 623 coins | 6.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 90.0% | $106 152 coins | 47.6% | 62 | 57.6 | 1.08× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $221 316 coins $920 1,315 coins 4.16x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=longshot) [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) Hidden $221 316 coins $106 152 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $221 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $222 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.4% legendary 8.6% extraordinary 90.0% best hit $920 (4.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt