---
title: "Loser case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Loser ($177.42) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 32 items with odds, observed 82.74% over 1,091 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Loser](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Loser

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser?window=all)

Price · $177.42 · 253 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $161.29 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.74% · 1,091 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 230 openings · below min

7 days · 87.01% ±27.86 763 openings

30 days · 82.74% ±23.31 1,091 openings

since tracking started · 82.74% ±23.31 1,091 openings

29.0% 80.3% 131.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser?window=24h) | 230 | 80.18% ±50.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser?window=7d) | 763 | 87.01% ±27.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser) | 1,091 | 82.74% ±23.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/loser?window=all) | 1,091 | 82.74% ±23.3 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,091 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,534 13,620 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,241 8,915 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 10.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,655 6,650 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 10.7% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.15× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $4,025 5,750 coins | 5.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 8.6% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $2,755 3,935 coins | 8.5% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 6.5% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 6.4% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $1,584 2,263 coins | 4.9% | 11 | 5.5 | 2.02× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,546 2,209 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.37× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,474 2,105 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,384 1,977 coins | 4.3% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 3.6% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,096 1,566 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $451 644 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.37× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $190 271 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $100 143 coins | 1.5% | 36 | 26.4 | 1.36× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 160 | 163.7 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 161 | 163.7 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 164 | 163.7 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 165 | 163.7 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 171 | 163.7 | 1.04× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 161 | 163.7 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $179 255 coins $10K 14,325 coins 56.13x 2026-11-07 15:22 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Zaligon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zaligon) $179 255 coins $7,000 10,000 coins 39.18x 2026-11-06 07:28 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $179 255 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 31.84x 2026-11-05 22:59 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $179 255 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 31.84x 2026-11-03 06:07 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $177 253 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 24.26x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $177 253 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 24.26x 2026-11-10 13:52 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $177 253 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 24.26x 2026-11-10 12:35 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $179 255 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 24.10x 2026-11-08 13:06 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $179 255 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 24.10x 2026-11-03 20:41 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) Hidden $177 253 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 22.69x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=loser)

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [tiltedfish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tiltedfish) $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $177 253 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $177 | 90.91% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.9% extraordinary 0.7% covert 8.4% consumer 90.0% best hit $10K (56.13x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt