---
title: "Lost and Found case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Lost and Found ($62.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 87.16% over 259 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lost and Found](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lost and Found

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found?window=all)

Price · $62.57 · 89.38 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $56.88 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.16% · 259 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 80.27% ±10.32 181 openings

30 days · 87.16% ±8.63 259 openings

since tracking started · 87.16% ±8.63 259 openings

9.5% 79.5% 149.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found?window=24h) | 4 | 79.30% ±69.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found?window=7d) | 181 | 80.27% ±10.3 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found) | 259 | 87.16% ±8.63 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lost-and-found?window=all) | 259 | 87.16% ±8.63 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 259 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $755 1,079 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $576 823 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $424 606 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $244 349 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $158 226 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $157 224 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $157 224 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $140 200 coins | 4.3% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $120 171 coins | 12.6% | 12 | 15.5 | 0.77× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $115 165 coins | 4.1% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $107 153 coins | 16.9% | 30 | 23.3 | 1.29× |
| [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $89.60 128 coins | 14.2% | 20 | 23.3 | 0.86× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $88.90 127 coins | 7.8% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.93× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 1 in 33 | $62.44 89.2 coins | 3.3% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.51× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $47.26 67.52 coins | 5.0% | 21 | 15.5 | 1.35× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $42.24 60.34 coins | 6.7% | 30 | 23.3 | 1.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $35.62 50.88 coins | 5.6% | 16 | 23.3 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) | 10.9% | $23.72 33.88 coins | 4.5% | 27 | 28.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $19.36 27.66 coins | 3.4% | 29 | 25.9 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $15.06 21.52 coins | 2.4% | 22 | 23.3 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir P90 \| Teardown (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $11.53 16.47 coins | 1.6% | 23 | 20.7 | 1.11× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lost-and-found)

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $62.57 89.38 coins $42.24 60.34 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

[Tec-9 | Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-factory-new) Hidden $62.57 89.38 coins $89.60 128 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-battle-scarred) Hidden $62.57 89.38 coins $47.26 67.52 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) [Sprellarinn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sprellarinn) $62.57 89.38 coins $19.36 27.66 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC

[P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.56 90.8 coins $85.40 122 coins 1.34x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $63.56 90.8 coins $43.18 61.69 coins 0.68x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.56 90.8 coins $19.01 27.16 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $63.56 90.8 coins $23.31 33.3 coins 0.37x 2026-11-07 16:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $63.56 90.8 coins $107 153 coins 1.69x 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) [sar haozar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sar%20haozar) $63.56 90.8 coins $23.31 33.3 coins 0.37x 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.57 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.78 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $63.56 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.1% restricted 6.0% consumer 9.0% classified 43.9% extraordinary 6.0% mil spec 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt