--- title: "Love Struck case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Love Struck ($9.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 23 items with odds, observed 88.38% over 3,858 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck rendered: 2026-11-11T14:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Love Struck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Love Struck A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck?window=all) Price · $9.02 · 12.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $8.20 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.38% · 3,858 openings, odds method Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.77% ±28.53 371 openings 7 days · 87.33% ±9.50 3,360 openings 30 days · 88.38% ±8.87 3,858 openings since tracking started · 88.38% ±8.87 3,858 openings 62.5% 91.8% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck?window=24h) | 371 | 91.77% ±28.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck?window=7d) | 3,360 | 87.33% ±9.50 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck) | 3,858 | 88.38% ±8.87 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/love-struck?window=all) | 3,858 | 88.38% ±8.87 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,870 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $286 408 coins | 5.2% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $248 355 coins | 3.0% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $206 294 coins | 11.3% | 13 | 17.4 | 0.75× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $186 265 coins | 5.7% | 14 | 9.7 | 1.45× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $175 250 coins | 5.3% | 5 | 9.7 | 0.52× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $115 164 coins | 7.0% | 20 | 19.4 | 1.03× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $77.70 111 coins | 6.6% | 28 | 27.1 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $47.59 67.98 coins | 4.4% | 26 | 29.0 | 0.90× | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $34.55 49.35 coins | 4.2% | 26 | 38.7 | 0.67× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $24.33 34.76 coins | 1.8% | 17 | 23.2 | 0.73× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $19.42 27.74 coins | 1.8% | 33 | 29.0 | 1.14× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $16.70 23.85 coins | 3.1% | 53 | 58.0 | 0.91× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $13.40 19.14 coins | 6.5% | 152 | 154.8 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 3.2% | 80 | 77.4 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.69 9.55 coins | 4.1% | 187 | 193.5 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.66 9.52 coins | 3.3% | 149 | 154.8 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.92 7.03 coins | 4.5% | 315 | 290.3 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 11.5% | $4.10 5.86 coins | 5.8% | 461 | 445.1 | 1.04× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.39 4.85 coins | 3.3% | 305 | 309.6 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.63 3.75 coins | 4.8% | 593 | 580.5 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 12.5% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 3.5% | 485 | 483.8 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.09 2.98 coins | 1.3% | 200 | 193.5 | 1.03× | | [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 18.5% | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.4% | 697 | 716.0 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=love-struck) [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $2.63 3.75 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $2.63 3.75 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $9.02 12.88 coins $13.29 18.98 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $9.02 12.88 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $9.02 12.88 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.02 12.88 coins $2.63 3.75 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $9.02 | 90.90% | 23 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $9.02 | 90.88% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.01 | 90.92% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.86 | 90.93% | 23 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $8.78 | 90.92% | 23 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $8.76 | 90.89% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.76 | 90.92% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.9% classified 5.5% mil spec 16.8% restricted 15.0% pink 0.8% Mythical 5.0% Legendary 19.0% #8847ff 12.5% uncommon 5.0% industrial 18.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt