--- title: "Luminous case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Luminous ($4.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.55% over 17K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Luminous](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Luminous A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous?window=all) Price · $4.21 · 6.01 coins Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $3.82 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.55% · 17K openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 38.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.19% ±5.65 1,421 openings 7 days · 92.03% ±1.86 12.5K openings 30 days · 91.55% ±1.59 17K openings since tracking started · 91.55% ±1.59 17K openings 84.0% 90.3% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous?window=24h) | 1,421 | 90.19% ±5.65 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous?window=7d) | 12.5K | 92.03% ±1.86 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous) | 17K | 91.55% ±1.59 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/luminous?window=all) | 17K | 91.55% ±1.59 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $206 294 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 3,333 | $27.60 39.43 coins | 0.2% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $17.98 25.69 coins | 1.2% | 50 | 42.8 | 1.17× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $13.97 19.96 coins | 3.7% | 163 | 171.0 | 0.95× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $12.78 18.26 coins | 1.7% | 83 | 85.5 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $11.83 16.9 coins | 9.3% | 539 | 513.1 | 1.05× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.35 14.78 coins | 0.3% | 20 | 17.1 | 1.17× | | [Sticker \| Toxic Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-flow-holo) | 1 in 67 | $9.21 13.16 coins | 3.6% | 283 | 256.5 | 1.10× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $8.13 11.61 coins | 8.5% | 696 | 684.1 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.06 10.08 coins | 9.2% | 933 | 855.1 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.38 9.11 coins | 8.3% | 785 | 855.1 | 0.92× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 17.6% | $6.24 8.91 coins | 28.7% | 2,973 | 3010.0 | 0.99× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $5.45 7.78 coins | 8.5% | 987 | 1026.1 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 16.0% | $3.39 4.85 coins | 14.2% | 2,791 | 2736.3 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.27 0.39 coins | 1.4% | 3,354 | 3420.4 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 3,439 | 3420.4 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=luminous) [MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $6.24 8.91 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $6.24 8.91 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $3.39 4.85 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [invisibility](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/invisibility) $4.21 6.01 coins $11.83 16.9 coins 2.81x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $6.24 8.91 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $3.39 4.85 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Tec-9 | Flash Out (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-battle-scarred) [Doktoraiai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Doktoraiai) $4.21 6.01 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Tec-9 | Flash Out (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.21 6.01 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $4.21 | 90.88% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $4.21 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.19 | 90.94% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.27 | 90.96% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.26 | 90.96% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $4.26 | 90.97% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $4.27 | 90.84% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.27 | 90.94% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 19.9% exotic 0.0% remarkable 1.5% restricted 38.6% mil spec 20.0% consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt