---
title: "Lunar case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lunar ($30.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 15 items with odds, observed 99.22% over 484 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lunar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lunar

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar?window=all)

Price · $30.82 · 44.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $28.02 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.22% · 484 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 48 openings · below min

7 days · 102.90% ±21.68 445 openings

30 days · 99.22% ±20.77 484 openings

since tracking started · 99.22% ±20.77 484 openings

8.0% 76.3% 144.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar?window=24h) | 48 | 76.29% ±67.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar?window=7d) | 445 | 102.90% ±21.7 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar) | 484 | 99.22% ±20.8 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lunar?window=all) | 484 | 99.22% ±20.8 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 526 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,021 1,458 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $827 1,182 coins | 8.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $465 664 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 125 | $412 589 coins | 11.8% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $146 208 coins | 13.0% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $118 169 coins | 6.8% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.54× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $60.39 86.27 coins | 8.6% | 15 | 21.0 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $57.26 81.8 coins | 10.2% | 30 | 26.3 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $42.17 60.24 coins | 9.0% | 19 | 31.6 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 11.0% | $33.31 47.59 coins | 13.1% | 67 | 57.9 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $16.14 23.06 coins | 5.5% | 44 | 50.0 | 0.88× |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.92 7.03 coins | 2.1% | 66 | 63.1 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $4.44 6.35 coins | 2.1% | 87 | 68.4 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $2.94 4.2 coins | 1.7% | 75 | 86.8 | 0.86× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 17.5% | $0.56 0.8 coins | 0.3% | 87 | 92.0 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $30.60 43.72 coins $1,021 1,458 coins 33.35x 2026-11-07 18:19 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [mickarmement100k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mickarmement100k) $30.60 43.72 coins $1,021 1,458 coins 33.35x 2026-11-05 19:36 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $706 1,008 coins 23.06x 2026-11-07 18:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lunar)

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $57.26 81.8 coins 1.86x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $30.82 44.03 coins $16.14 23.06 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $4.44 6.35 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.82 44.03 coins $0.56 0.8 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.82 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.99 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.60 | 90.90% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.8% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 39.8% classified 22.1% consumer 25.0% best hit $1,021 (33.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt