---
title: "M4A4 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 ($6.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.81% over 13.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · M4A4

A case on CSGORoll (rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4?window=all)

Price · $6.90 · 9.85 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $6.27 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.81% · 13.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 38.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 66.30% ±32.29 1,430 openings

7 days · 89.50% ±11.63 11K openings

30 days · 86.81% ±10.65 13.1K openings

since tracking started · 86.81% ±10.65 13.1K openings

33.5% 67.8% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4?window=24h) | 1,430 | 66.30% ±32.3 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4?window=7d) | 11K | 89.50% ±11.6 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4) | 13.1K | 86.81% ±10.6 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/m4a4?window=all) | 13.1K | 86.81% ±10.6 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 9.9% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $565 807 coins | 9.0% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $279 398 coins | 4.4% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $251 359 coins | 4.0% | 13 | 13.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $186 265 coins | 3.0% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $174 249 coins | 2.8% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $158 225 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 13.1 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $81.20 116 coins | 1.3% | 16 | 13.1 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $59.89 85.56 coins | 1.9% | 20 | 26.1 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $26.10 37.28 coins | 31.2% | 1,008 | 980.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $9.39 13.42 coins | 11.2% | 1,019 | 980.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 20.3% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 14.1% | 2,563 | 2653.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 21.3% | $0.52 0.74 coins | 1.8% | 2,682 | 2777.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 21.3% | $0.42 0.6 coins | 1.4% | 2,818 | 2777.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 21.3% | $0.09 0.13 coins | 0.3% | 2,872 | 2777.6 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [I'm the best bird](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20the%20best%20bird) $6.98 9.97 coins $1,269 1,813 coins 181.8x 2026-11-06 16:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 9.97 coins $1,269 1,813 coins 181.8x 2026-11-06 11:38 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 9.97 coins $1,269 1,813 coins 181.8x 2026-11-05 05:38 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [PUPEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PUPEK) $6.90 9.85 coins $1,241 1,773 coins 180.0x 2026-11-10 13:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $6.96 9.95 coins $1,241 1,773 coins 178.2x 2026-11-08 15:51 UTC

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $565 807 coins 81.93x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [sbears](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sbears) $6.90 9.85 coins $565 807 coins 81.93x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [w1xpo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/w1xpo) $6.90 9.85 coins $565 807 coins 81.93x 2026-11-09 05:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 9.97 coins $563 804 coins 80.64x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $6.98 9.97 coins $563 804 coins 80.64x 2026-11-07 14:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=m4a4)

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $0.51 0.73 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [mellow111.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mellow111.) $6.90 9.85 coins $0.51 0.73 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) [Dekel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekel) $6.90 9.85 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $26.10 37.28 coins 3.78x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $0.51 0.73 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $6.90 9.85 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [Dekel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekel) $6.90 9.85 coins $0.42 0.6 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $0.42 0.6 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) Hidden $6.90 9.85 coins $0.51 0.73 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.90 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.96 | 90.87% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $6.98 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $6.98 | 90.87% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.98 | 90.89% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% classified 0.4% restricted 20.4% mil spec 21.3% covert 7.9% industrial 28.7% Rare 21.3% best hit $1,269 (181.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt