--- title: "Magma case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Magma ($240.59) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 82.19% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma rendered: 2026-11-11T18:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Magma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Magma A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma?window=all) Price · $240.59 · 344 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $218.72 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.19% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 13.0% 82.3% 151.5% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 8.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma?window=7d) | 20 | 82.19% ±68.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma) | 20 | 82.19% ±68.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/magma?window=all) | 20 | 82.19% ±68.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $22.8K 32,500 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,335 9,050 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 4,000 | $5,719 8,170 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,250 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $1,616 2,308 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,567 2,239 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $557 795 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $419 599 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $302 432 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 39.9% | $295 421 coins | 53.7% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $291 416 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $251 359 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 25.0% | $189 270 coins | 21.6% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $155 221 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $142 203 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $98.70 141 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $87.50 125 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) | 15.0% | $57.92 82.74 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $54.62 78.03 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=magma) [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $241 344 coins $295 421 coins 1.22x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $241 344 coins $189 270 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) Hidden $241 344 coins $57.92 82.74 coins 0.24x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $241 344 coins $189 270 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) [m3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m3) $241 344 coins $189 270 coins 0.79x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $241 344 coins $295 421 coins 1.22x 2026-11-09 23:21 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) Hidden $238 340 coins $57.92 82.74 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 03:17 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) Hidden $238 340 coins $57.92 82.74 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 03:17 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $238 340 coins $193 275 coins 0.81x 2026-11-08 03:17 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) [BanjoTheBandit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BanjoTheBandit) $238 340 coins $57.92 82.74 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 03:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $241 | 90.91% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $240 | 90.91% | 20 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $238 | 90.91% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $239 | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 81.8% remarkable 0.1% epic 0.1% mil spec 0.9% classified 2.0% restricted 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt