--- title: "Manipulation case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Manipulation ($253.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 75.03% over 200 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Manipulation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Manipulation A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation?window=all) Price · $253.75 · 363 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $230.68 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.03% · 200 openings, odds method Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 164 openings · below min 30 days · 75.03% ±45.16 200 openings since tracking started · 75.03% ±45.16 200 openings 29.0% 80.3% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation?window=7d) | 164 | 81.20% ±49.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation) | 200 | 75.03% ±45.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/manipulation?window=all) | 200 | 75.03% ±45.2 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 30.1% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 13.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,970 2,815 coins | 8.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,949 2,785 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,545 2,207 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $1,331 1,901 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 4.6% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 4.3% | 9 | 2.0 | 4.50× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $878 1,254 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $816 1,166 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $571 815 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $555 793 coins | 2.4% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $482 689 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $356 509 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $332 474 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $2.58 3.68 coins | 0.2% | 42 | 42.0 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $2.39 3.42 coins | 0.2% | 39 | 44.0 | 0.89× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $1.03 1.47 coins | 0.1% | 41 | 42.0 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) | 21.0% | $0.92 1.32 coins | 0.1% | 42 | 42.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $256 366 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 12.27x 2026-11-06 10:52 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $256 366 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 12.27x 2026-11-05 01:15 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $256 366 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 12.27x 2026-11-04 22:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,946 2,780 coins 7.60x 2026-11-04 20:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,588 2,269 coins 6.20x 2026-11-05 01:11 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,350 1,928 coins 5.27x 2026-11-04 22:10 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,350 1,928 coins 5.27x 2026-11-04 12:30 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.23x 2026-11-07 23:43 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.23x 2026-11-05 01:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $256 366 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.23x 2026-11-04 22:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=manipulation) [MP7 | Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) Hidden $254 363 coins $0.92 1.32 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:18 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:18 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:18 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [bennett](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bennett) $254 363 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:18 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) [Vexko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vexko) $254 363 coins $0.92 1.32 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 07:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Surfwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $2.39 3.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 07:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Surfwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $2.39 3.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 07:55 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) Hidden $254 363 coins $0.92 1.32 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 07:55 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) Hidden $254 363 coins $0.92 1.32 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 07:55 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $254 363 coins $356 509 coins 1.40x 2026-11-09 07:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $256 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $256 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.0% high 1.0% consumer 43.0% classified 21.0% restricted 21.0% best hit $3,143 (12.27x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt