---
title: "Marine case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Marine ($24.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 88.10% over 2,427 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Marine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Marine

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine?window=all)

Price · $24.05 · 34.36 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $21.87 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.10% · 2,427 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.08% ±20.22 156 openings

7 days · 87.90% ±5.55 2,075 openings

30 days · 88.10% ±5.14 2,427 openings

since tracking started · 88.10% ±5.14 2,427 openings

71.0% 92.0% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine?window=24h) | 156 | 92.08% ±20.2 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine?window=7d) | 2,075 | 87.90% ±5.55 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine) | 2,427 | 88.10% ±5.14 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marine?window=all) | 2,427 | 88.10% ±5.14 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,428 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $451 644 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 400 | $321 459 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $295 421 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $293 418 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $160 228 coins | 1.8% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.48× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 286 | $120 171 coins | 1.9% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 167 | $110 157 coins | 3.0% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $99.40 142 coins | 1.6% | 13 | 8.5 | 1.53× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 71 | $86.80 124 coins | 5.6% | 31 | 34.0 | 0.91× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $74.90 107 coins | 1.7% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $66.68 95.26 coins | 18.3% | 150 | 145.7 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 7.5% | 53 | 60.7 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $50.27 71.81 coins | 13.8% | 149 | 145.7 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $28.72 41.03 coins | 7.9% | 119 | 145.7 | 0.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $28.64 40.92 coins | 7.9% | 140 | 145.7 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $15.55 22.21 coins | 5.0% | 167 | 170.0 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $11.92 17.03 coins | 3.8% | 164 | 170.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $9.96 14.23 coins | 3.9% | 207 | 206.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Tread (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-tread-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $6.62 9.46 coins | 2.6% | 227 | 206.4 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $6.53 9.33 coins | 3.0% | 254 | 242.8 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $5.56 7.95 coins | 2.2% | 222 | 211.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $3.67 5.24 coins | 1.7% | 229 | 242.8 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.16 4.51 coins | 1.4% | 255 | 242.8 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=marine)

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $9.96 14.23 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Tread (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-tread-factory-new) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $6.62 9.46 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $9.96 14.23 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $3.16 4.51 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $50.27 71.81 coins 2.09x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Tread (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-tread-factory-new) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $6.62 9.46 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $9.96 14.23 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $24.05 34.36 coins $110 157 coins 4.57x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $6.53 9.33 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $5.56 7.95 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.05 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $24.14 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $24.24 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $24.25 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.24 | 90.90% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.4% extraordinary 1.0% restricted 41.7% mil spec 18.9% classified 17.0% blue 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt