--- title: "Marksman Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Marksman Case ($72.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 77.11% over 150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Marksman Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Marksman Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case?window=all) Price · $72.07 · 103 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.52 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.11% · 150 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 70.79% ±31.94 107 openings 30 days · 77.11% ±26.96 150 openings since tracking started · 77.11% ±26.96 150 openings -0.5% 93.5% 187.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case?window=24h) | 10 | 82.06% ±105.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case?window=7d) | 107 | 70.79% ±31.9 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case) | 150 | 77.11% ±27.0 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/marksman-case?window=all) | 150 | 77.11% ±27.0 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,887 12,695 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $563 804 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $344 492 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $334 477 coins | 5.9% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $286 409 coins | 35.0% | 3 | 12.0 | 0.25× | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $285 407 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $148 211 coins | 11.3% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $116 166 coins | 10.6% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.44× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $111 159 coins | 11.9% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $93.10 133 coins | 3.9% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.21× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $28.27 40.38 coins | 3.5% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $25.44 36.34 coins | 3.5% | 18 | 13.5 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $15.42 22.03 coins | 2.8% | 13 | 18.0 | 0.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $7.54 10.77 coins | 1.5% | 25 | 19.3 | 1.29× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 14.4% | $5.94 8.48 coins | 1.3% | 20 | 21.6 | 0.93× | | [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 12.6% | $4.79 6.85 coins | 0.9% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=marksman-case) [SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) [Shlumpwreck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shlumpwreck) $72.07 103 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $286 409 coins 3.97x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.35x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $7.54 10.77 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $72.07 103 coins $116 166 coins 1.61x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [svanteaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/svanteaa) $72.07 103 coins $111 159 coins 1.54x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.07 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.40 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $73.42 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 28.8% rare 0.1% classified 37.3% mil spec 9.2% restricted 24.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt