--- title: "Maroon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Maroon ($140.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 95.00% over 221 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Maroon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Maroon A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon?window=all) Price · $140.01 · 200 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $127.28 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.00% · 221 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 19 openings · below min 7 days · 98.77% ±15.45 177 openings 30 days · 95.00% ±13.84 221 openings since tracking started · 95.00% ±13.84 221 openings 23.0% 70.3% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon?window=24h) | 19 | 70.36% ±46.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon?window=7d) | 177 | 98.77% ±15.5 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon) | 221 | 95.00% ±13.8 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maroon?window=all) | 221 | 95.00% ±13.8 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 221 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,257 1,796 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 250 | $1,086 1,552 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $935 1,336 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $697 996 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $679 970 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.71× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $652 932 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.71× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $531 758 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.71× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $386 551 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $384 549 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $274 392 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $244 349 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $232 332 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $190 271 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 30.0% | $107 153 coins | 25.2% | 65 | 66.3 | 0.98× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $106 151 coins | 2.1% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× | | [Sticker \| somebody (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-somebody-foil-boston-2018) | 30.0% | $93.80 134 coins | 22.1% | 73 | 66.3 | 1.10× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $91.70 131 coins | 21.6% | 60 | 66.3 | 0.90× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $140 200 coins $1,120 1,600 coins 8.01x 2026-11-07 01:28 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [SVENNEBANANNNEEE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SVENNEBANANNNEEE) $140 200 coins $1,120 1,600 coins 8.01x 2026-11-06 20:55 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $704 1,006 coins 5.03x 2026-11-07 19:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $704 1,006 coins 5.03x 2026-11-07 03:41 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $704 1,006 coins 5.03x 2026-11-03 20:19 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $140 200 coins $664 949 coins 4.75x 2026-11-07 13:09 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $140 200 coins $664 949 coins 4.75x 2026-11-07 06:15 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $140 200 coins $664 949 coins 4.75x 2026-11-06 15:59 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) [Lvlpl5](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lvlpl5) $140 200 coins $543 775 coins 3.88x 2026-11-06 20:32 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $140 200 coins $543 775 coins 3.88x 2026-11-06 16:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=maroon) [Sticker | somebody (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-somebody-foil-boston-2018) Hidden $140 200 coins $93.80 134 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 02:12 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) Hidden $140 200 coins $107 153 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $91.70 131 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) [Jakymowsky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jakymowsky) $140 200 coins $107 153 coins 0.76x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $91.70 131 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $91.70 131 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 21:47 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) Hidden $140 200 coins $107 153 coins 0.76x 2026-11-10 21:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $91.70 131 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 21:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $140 200 coins $107 153 coins 0.76x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 200 coins $91.70 131 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 21:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $140 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $140 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 39.0% extraordinary 1.0% remarkable 30.0% restricted 30.0% best hit $1,120 (8.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt