--- title: "Masked case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Masked ($169.55) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 67.48% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked rendered: 2026-11-11T14:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Masked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Masked A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked?window=all) Price · $169.55 · 242 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $154.14 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.48% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 40 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min -0.5% 70.8% 142.0% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 12.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked?window=24h) | 6 | 41.59% ±100.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked?window=7d) | 40 | 72.68% ±38.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked) | 44 | 67.48% ±37.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masked?window=all) | 44 | 67.48% ±37.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $1,900 2,715 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,136 1,623 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $931 1,330 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $860 1,228 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $811 1,159 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $682 974 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $552 788 coins | 7.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 667 | $533 762 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $426 608 coins | 9.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 18.0% | $286 409 coins | 33.4% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.88× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $225 321 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $202 289 coins | 5.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $107 153 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 17.0% | $39.24 56.06 coins | 4.3% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 19.0% | $27.62 39.45 coins | 3.4% | 14 | 8.4 | 1.67× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 23.2% | $23.32 33.31 coins | 3.5% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.08× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $170 242 coins $552 788 coins 3.25x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $170 242 coins $552 788 coins 3.25x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=masked) [AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $170 242 coins $39.24 56.06 coins 0.23x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $170 242 coins $23.32 33.31 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $170 242 coins $23.32 33.31 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $170 242 coins $286 409 coins 1.69x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $170 242 coins $23.32 33.31 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $170 242 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $170 242 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.16x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $170 242 coins $286 409 coins 1.69x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $170 242 coins $23.32 33.31 coins 0.14x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $170 242 coins $426 608 coins 2.51x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $170 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $169 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $173 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 55.7% restricted 2.1% classified 42.1% best hit $552 (3.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt