--- title: "Masterpiece case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Masterpiece ($4.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.79% over 12.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Masterpiece](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Masterpiece A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece?window=all) Price · $4.79 · 6.84 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $4.35 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.79% · 12.6K openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.08% ±13.27 1,301 openings 7 days · 90.15% ±4.65 10.8K openings 30 days · 88.79% ±4.31 12.6K openings since tracking started · 88.79% ±4.31 12.6K openings 75.0% 89.0% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece?window=24h) | 1,301 | 89.08% ±13.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece?window=7d) | 10.8K | 90.15% ±4.65 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece) | 12.6K | 88.79% ±4.31 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/masterpiece?window=all) | 12.6K | 88.79% ±4.31 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $189 270 coins | 4.3% | 8 | 12.6 | 0.63× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $112 160 coins | 7.7% | 34 | 37.8 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $81.90 117 coins | 3.8% | 32 | 25.2 | 1.27× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $46.28 66.11 coins | 7.4% | 89 | 88.3 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $34.79 49.7 coins | 12.8% | 195 | 201.8 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $34.25 48.93 coins | 9.4% | 133 | 151.4 | 0.88× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $16.93 24.18 coins | 7.8% | 254 | 252.3 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.87 18.38 coins | 7.4% | 343 | 315.4 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $11.94 17.05 coins | 8.2% | 370 | 378.4 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.54 10.77 coins | 6.9% | 485 | 504.6 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.71 9.58 coins | 9.2% | 763 | 756.9 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.85 5.5 coins | 3.5% | 494 | 504.6 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) | 10.0% | $2.07 2.95 coins | 4.7% | 1,303 | 1261.5 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.78 2.54 coins | 2.0% | 629 | 630.8 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.70 1 coins | 1.3% | 1,036 | 1009.2 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 11.0% | $0.45 0.64 coins | 1.1% | 1,326 | 1387.7 | 0.96× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) | 22.4% | $0.32 0.46 coins | 1.7% | 2,871 | 2825.8 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.13 0.18 coins | 0.5% | 2,250 | 2270.7 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=masterpiece) [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $4.79 6.84 coins $2.07 2.95 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $7.54 10.77 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $6.71 9.58 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $2.07 2.95 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $2.07 2.95 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) [židle](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%C5%BEidle) $4.79 6.84 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) Hidden $4.79 6.84 coins $2.07 2.95 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $4.79 | 90.89% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.79 | 90.95% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.79 | 90.85% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.79 | 90.87% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.77 | 90.87% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.77 | 90.94% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $4.77 | 90.86% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $4.77 | 90.96% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.79 | 90.87% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.79 | 90.92% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.4% classified 8.7% restricted 31.5% mil spec 28.4% industrial 29.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt