---
title: "Matrix case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Matrix ($28.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.55% over 704 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Matrix](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Matrix

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix?window=all)

Price · $28.45 · 40.64 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $25.86 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.55% · 704 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 49 openings · below min

7 days · 89.66% ±28.65 575 openings

30 days · 86.55% ±25.89 704 openings

since tracking started · 86.55% ±25.89 704 openings

-0.5% 78.8% 158.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix?window=24h) | 49 | 59.21% ±98.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix?window=7d) | 575 | 89.66% ±28.6 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix) | 704 | 86.55% ±25.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/matrix?window=all) | 704 | 86.55% ±25.9 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 704 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,466 6,380 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,946 2,780 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 625 | $517 738 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $378 540 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 154 | $209 299 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Emerald (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-emerald-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $169 241 coins | 5.2% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $121 173 coins | 4.7% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $108 154 coins | 8.3% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $73.50 105 coins | 17.1% | 42 | 42.2 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Sprout Esports (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sprout-esports-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 11 | $43.74 62.48 coins | 15.2% | 66 | 63.4 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $27.65 39.5 coins | 10.7% | 76 | 70.4 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-foil-katowice-2019) | 10.0% | $22.89 32.7 coins | 8.9% | 74 | 70.4 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 12.0% | $5.89 8.41 coins | 2.7% | 73 | 84.5 | 0.86× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) | 13.0% | $4.79 6.85 coins | 2.4% | 86 | 91.5 | 0.94× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $3.09 4.42 coins | 1.8% | 112 | 105.6 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) | 20.0% | $0.62 0.89 coins | 0.5% | 144 | 140.8 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $28.78 41.11 coins $2,002 2,860 coins 69.57x 2026-11-07 23:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=matrix)

[Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[Sticker | Gold Teef (Foil) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-teef-foil) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $0.62 0.89 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $28.45 40.64 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $27.65 39.5 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[Sticker | Sprout Esports (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sprout-esports-foil-boston-2018) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $43.74 62.48 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 02:20 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $5.89 8.41 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:20 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) [Manz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Manz) $28.45 40.64 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 02:20 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.45 40.64 coins $27.65 39.5 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 02:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $28.45 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.46 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.82 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.78 | 90.92% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 9.7% restricted 1.3% exotic 19.0% classified 23.0% rare 12.0% industrial 15.0% common 20.0% best hit $2,002 (69.57x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt