--- title: "Maximized case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Maximized ($1.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.04% from 29 items with odds, observed 92.47% over 203K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Maximized](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Maximized A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized?window=all) Price · $1.82 · 2.6 coins Advertised RTP · 91.04% · EV $1.66 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.47% · 203K openings, odds method Variance · 23.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 66 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.34% ±5.63 28.1K openings 7 days · 93.35% ±2.29 172K openings 30 days · 92.47% ±2.11 203K openings since tracking started · 92.47% ±2.11 203K openings 89.5% 96.0% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized?window=24h) | 28.1K | 96.34% ±5.63 | +1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized?window=7d) | 172K | 93.35% ±2.29 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized) | 203K | 92.47% ±2.11 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/maximized?window=all) | 203K | 92.47% ±2.11 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 203K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $172 246 coins | 0.5% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $107 153 coins | 32.3% | 1,060 | 1016.9 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $93.80 134 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $77.00 110 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $67.53 96.47 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.97× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $63.10 90.14 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $50.69 72.42 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $33.52 47.88 coins | 10.1% | 1,051 | 1016.9 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $29.02 41.46 coins | 8.8% | 1,024 | 1016.9 | 1.01× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $24.52 35.03 coins | 7.4% | 1,068 | 1016.9 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $17.77 25.39 coins | 5.4% | 993 | 1016.9 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $16.97 24.24 coins | 5.1% | 1,019 | 1016.9 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.79 22.56 coins | 0.2% | 56 | 40.7 | 1.38× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $14.57 20.82 coins | 4.4% | 982 | 1016.9 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $12.66 18.08 coins | 3.8% | 1,059 | 1016.9 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $12.29 17.56 coins | 3.7% | 1,034 | 1016.9 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $10.25 14.64 coins | 3.1% | 959 | 1016.9 | 0.94× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $9.86 14.09 coins | 3.0% | 995 | 1016.9 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $9.02 12.89 coins | 2.7% | 975 | 1016.9 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) | 1 in 200 | $7.89 11.27 coins | 2.4% | 1,009 | 1016.9 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $7.86 11.23 coins | 2.4% | 1,027 | 1016.9 | 1.01× | | [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.61 9.44 coins | 0.0% | 16 | 20.3 | 0.79× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $6.17 8.82 coins | 1.9% | 951 | 1016.9 | 0.94× | | [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3.02 4.32 coins | 0.9% | 1,006 | 1016.9 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $1.72 2.45 coins | 0.7% | 1,475 | 1451.3 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sandstorm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $1.22 1.75 coins | 0.6% | 1,537 | 1525.3 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $0.68 0.97 coins | 0.2% | 1,031 | 1016.9 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 91,141 | 91519.7 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 91,896 | 91519.7 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $172 246 coins 94.62x 2026-11-10 19:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $172 246 coins 94.62x 2026-11-10 16:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $172 246 coins 94.62x 2026-11-10 13:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-08 01:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-07 19:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-05 20:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-04 18:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-04 18:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-03 15:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) [70/30 Grogg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/70%2F30%20Grogg) $1.79 2.56 coins $169 241 coins 94.14x 2026-11-03 09:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=maximized) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $17.77 25.39 coins 9.77x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $12.66 18.08 coins 6.95x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $9.02 12.89 coins 4.96x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins $29.02 41.46 coins 15.95x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.82 2.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Axiomatic csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Axiomatic%20csgoroll.com) $1.82 2.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $1.82 | 91.04% | 29 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.82 | 91.02% | 29 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.82 | 91.06% | 29 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.79 | 90.88% | 29 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.79 | 90.87% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $1.79 | 90.87% | 29 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.79 | 90.87% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.5% restricted 1.7% classified 3.5% rare 0.5% mil spec 1.8% exotic 0.5% pink 0.5% consumer 90.0% best hit $172 (94.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.04 on average: an expected loss of $8.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt