---
title: "Mayhem case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mayhem ($176.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 79.30% over 36 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mayhem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mayhem

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem?window=all)

Price · $176.05 · 252 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $160.05 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.30% · 36 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 36 openings · below min

30 days · 36 openings · below min

since tracking started · 36 openings · below min

56.0% 79.3% 102.5%

**Small sample.** 36 openings and 9.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem?window=7d) | 36 | 79.30% ±22.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem) | 36 | 79.30% ±22.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mayhem?window=all) | 36 | 79.30% ±22.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $941 1,344 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $660 943 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $536 766 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $440 628 coins | 13.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $287 410 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $255 364 coins | 12.7% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $195 279 coins | 11.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.23× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $195 278 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $168 240 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [★ Flip Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife) | 1 in 13 | $159 227 coins | 7.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 10.0% | $141 202 coins | 8.8% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $128 183 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 23.4% | $84.70 121 coins | 12.4% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 15.0% | $39.24 56.06 coins | 3.7% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mayhem)

[★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $176 252 coins $128 183 coins 0.73x 2026-11-09 12:54 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 12:54 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 12:54 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 12:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $141 202 coins 0.80x 2026-11-09 12:54 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $176 252 coins $195 279 coins 1.11x 2026-11-09 12:54 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $176 252 coins $195 279 coins 1.11x 2026-11-09 12:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $141 202 coins 0.80x 2026-11-09 12:48 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $176 252 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 12:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $176 252 coins $287 410 coins 1.63x 2026-11-09 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $176 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $178 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 66.6% classified 33.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt