--- title: "Medium 50 50 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Medium 50 50 ($54.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 2 items with odds, observed 86.88% over 969 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Medium 50 50](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Medium 50 50 A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50?window=all) Price · $54.68 · 78.11 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $49.70 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.88% · 969 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 50.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.74% ±15.75 128 openings 7 days · 87.27% ±5.87 921 openings 30 days · 86.88% ±5.73 969 openings since tracking started · 86.88% ±5.73 969 openings 77.5% 93.8% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50?window=24h) | 128 | 93.74% ±15.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50?window=7d) | 921 | 87.27% ±5.87 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50) | 969 | 86.88% ±5.73 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medium-50-50?window=all) | 969 | 86.88% ±5.73 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 981 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 50.0% | $99.40 142 coins | 100.0% | 469 | 490.5 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 512 | 490.5 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=medium-50-50) [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $54.68 78.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $54.68 78.11 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $54.68 | 90.90% | 2 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.14 | 90.90% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 50.0% consumer 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt