---
title: "Medkit case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Medkit ($19.62) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.11% over 990 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Medkit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Medkit

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit?window=all)

Price · $19.62 · 28.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $17.84 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.11% · 990 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.10% ±24.73 116 openings

7 days · 89.53% ±9.06 859 openings

30 days · 90.11% ±8.44 990 openings

since tracking started · 90.11% ±8.44 990 openings

50.5% 76.0% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit?window=24h) | 116 | 76.10% ±24.7 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit?window=7d) | 859 | 89.53% ±9.06 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit) | 990 | 90.11% ±8.44 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/medkit?window=all) | 990 | 90.11% ±8.44 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 994 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $855 1,221 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $427 610 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $334 477 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $243 347 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $194 277 coins | 3.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $122 175 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $98.70 141 coins | 22.1% | 45 | 39.8 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $63.80 91.14 coins | 3.6% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 16.0% | $29.03 41.47 coins | 26.0% | 154 | 159.0 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $28.27 40.38 coins | 4.8% | 32 | 29.8 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $19.38 27.69 coins | 6.5% | 53 | 59.6 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $11.38 16.26 coins | 5.1% | 91 | 79.5 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $9.34 13.34 coins | 5.2% | 97 | 99.4 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $7.70 11 coins | 5.2% | 123 | 119.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 21.2% | $6.84 9.77 coins | 8.1% | 209 | 210.4 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 18.0% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 4.4% | 175 | 178.9 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=medkit)

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $6.84 9.77 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $11.38 16.26 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $19.62 28.03 coins $98.70 141 coins 5.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $6.84 9.77 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[MAC-10 | Graven (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $19.38 27.69 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $11.38 16.26 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $29.03 41.47 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $19.62 28.03 coins $9.34 13.34 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $19.62 28.03 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.62 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.80 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.86 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.5% mil spec 15.0% restricted 16.3% red 4.0% classified 9.0% Mythical 21.2% consumer 18.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt