--- title: "Melody case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Melody ($0.60) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.10% from 10 items with odds, observed 91.32% over 51.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Melody](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Melody A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody?window=all) Price · $0.60 · 0.86 coins Advertised RTP · 91.10% · EV $0.55 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.32% · 51.4K openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.53% ±4.36 5,321 openings 7 days · 90.95% ±1.55 42K openings 30 days · 91.32% ±1.40 51.4K openings since tracking started · 91.32% ±1.40 51.4K openings 87.5% 92.5% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody?window=24h) | 5,321 | 92.53% ±4.36 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody?window=7d) | 42K | 90.95% ±1.55 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody) | 51.4K | 91.32% ±1.40 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/melody?window=all) | 51.4K | 91.32% ±1.40 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $61.52 87.89 coins | 1.1% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.54× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $4.07 5.82 coins | 1.9% | 139 | 129.5 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $2.33 3.33 coins | 5.3% | 644 | 642.3 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.22 3.17 coins | 36.4% | 4,616 | 4662.2 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.67 2.39 coins | 21.4% | 3,710 | 3626.1 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.90 1.29 coins | 20.6% | 6,434 | 6475.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 15.0% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 11.1% | 7,687 | 7770.3 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-minimal-wear) | 17.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 1.1% | 9,143 | 9065.3 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.7% | 9,078 | 9065.3 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 10,343 | 10360.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-07 08:59 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-05 21:07 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [lucirse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/lucirse) $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-05 17:40 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-04 18:04 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-03 17:01 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-03 04:07 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.61 0.87 coins $62.42 89.17 coins 102.5x 2026-11-02 22:52 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [$Barbieespecedeconnasse$](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%24Barbieespecedeconnasse%24) $0.60 0.86 coins $61.52 87.89 coins 102.2x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=melody) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.90 1.29 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.90 1.29 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Morty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Morty) $0.60 0.86 coins $0.90 1.29 coins 1.50x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 3.69x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $1.67 2.39 coins 2.78x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 0.86 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.60 | 91.10% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.60 | 90.58% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.61 | 90.54% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.61 | 90.51% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% consumer 37.8% restricted 32.2% mil spec 12.5% industrial 17.5% best hit $62.42 (102.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.10 on average: an expected loss of $8.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt