---
title: "Meltdown case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Meltdown ($357.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 63.58% over 1,266 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Meltdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Meltdown

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown?window=all)

Price · $357.61 · 511 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $325.10 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 63.58% · 1,266 openings, odds method

Variance · 62.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 201 openings · below min

7 days · 67.73% ±46.58 1,106 openings

30 days · 63.58% ±43.52 1,266 openings

since tracking started · 63.58% ±43.52 1,266 openings

-0.5% 65.3% 131.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown?window=24h) | 201 | 20.94% ±109.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown?window=7d) | 1,106 | 67.73% ±46.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown) | 1,266 | 63.58% ±43.5 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meltdown?window=all) | 1,266 | 63.58% ±43.5 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,266 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 400 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 41.1% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 9.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $9,534 13,620 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $9,240 13,200 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 8.0% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.11× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $1,639 2,341 coins | 5.0% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $1,543 2,204 coins | 4.7% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,436 2,052 coins | 4.4% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,257 1,796 coins | 7.7% | 23 | 25.3 | 0.91× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $679 970 coins | 2.1% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $630 900 coins | 1.9% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $418 597 coins | 1.3% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 416 | 379.8 | 1.10× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 368 | 379.8 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 369 | 379.8 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $360 514 coins $53.5K 76,380 coins 148.6x 2026-11-06 00:29 UTC

[Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $360 514 coins $53.5K 76,380 coins 148.6x 2026-11-04 20:33 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $358 511 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 33.28x 2026-11-09 05:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $360 514 coins $10K 14,325 coins 27.88x 2026-11-07 14:44 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $358 511 coins $9,534 13,620 coins 26.66x 2026-11-10 10:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $360 514 coins $8,838 12,625 coins 24.57x 2026-11-05 15:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Hakki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hakki) $360 514 coins $8,838 12,625 coins 24.57x 2026-11-04 02:56 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $360 514 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 7.34x 2026-11-08 03:14 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $360 514 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 7.34x 2026-11-07 15:29 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $360 514 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 7.34x 2026-11-07 14:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=meltdown)

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $358 511 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [tiltedfish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tiltedfish) $358 511 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $358 511 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $358 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $358 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $360 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.3% covert 9.5% contraband 0.3% consumer 90.0% best hit $53.5K (148.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt