--- title: "Mercenary case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mercenary ($85.83) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 83.69% over 84 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mercenary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mercenary A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary?window=all) Price · $85.83 · 123 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $78.03 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.69% · 84 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 53 openings · below min 30 days · 84 openings · below min since tracking started · 84 openings · below min 43.0% 85.5% 128.0% **Small sample.** 84 openings and 11.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary?window=7d) | 53 | 85.64% ±41.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary) | 84 | 83.69% ±33.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mercenary?window=all) | 84 | 83.69% ±33.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $638 912 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $475 678 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 12.0% | $226 323 coins | 34.8% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $225 321 coins | 5.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $93.80 134 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $89.60 128 coins | 8.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $78.40 112 coins | 5.0% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 10.9% | $41.96 59.95 coins | 5.9% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 14.0% | $29.13 41.61 coins | 5.2% | 20 | 11.8 | 1.70× | | [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $26.87 38.38 coins | 6.2% | 12 | 15.1 | 0.79× | | [M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $17.58 25.11 coins | 4.5% | 12 | 16.8 | 0.71× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mercenary) [M4A4 | Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $17.58 25.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cyrex-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $41.96 59.95 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $89.60 128 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) [ryfry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ryfry) $85.83 123 coins $26.87 38.38 coins 0.31x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 0.34x 2026-11-10 05:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $226 323 coins 2.63x 2026-11-10 05:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $85.83 123 coins $226 323 coins 2.63x 2026-11-10 05:21 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $85.83 123 coins $78.40 112 coins 0.91x 2026-11-10 05:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.83 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.20 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.77 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 29.0% classified 18.9% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 14.0% industrial 38.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt