--- title: "Mermaid Glory case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mermaid Glory ($121.33) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 85.89% over 587 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory rendered: 2026-11-11T19:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mermaid Glory](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mermaid Glory A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory?window=all) Price · $121.33 · 173 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $110.30 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.89% · 587 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 93.71% ±18.48 417 openings 30 days · 85.89% ±15.58 587 openings since tracking started · 85.89% ±15.58 587 openings 69.5% 177.3% 285.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory?window=24h) | 30 | 215.36% ±68.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory?window=7d) | 417 | 93.71% ±18.5 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory) | 587 | 85.89% ±15.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mermaid-glory?window=all) | 587 | 85.89% ±15.6 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 587 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,939 2,770 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $884 1,263 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $595 850 coins | 10.8% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.02× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 48 | $518 740 coins | 9.9% | 14 | 12.3 | 1.14× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $465 664 coins | 8.4% | 14 | 11.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 45 | $435 622 coins | 8.7% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $420 600 coins | 15.2% | 24 | 23.5 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $293 418 coins | 10.1% | 26 | 22.3 | 1.17× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $264 377 coins | 5.5% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $127 181 coins | 8.1% | 42 | 41.6 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $32.58 46.55 coins | 2.4% | 55 | 47.0 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 15.0% | $8.81 12.58 coins | 1.2% | 95 | 88.0 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 50.0% | $4.92 7.03 coins | 2.2% | 276 | 293.5 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Necro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Necro) $121 173 coins $1,939 2,770 coins 15.98x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $124 176 coins $921 1,316 coins 7.46x 2026-11-08 01:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $124 176 coins $921 1,316 coins 7.46x 2026-11-08 01:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $121 173 coins $884 1,263 coins 7.29x 2026-11-11 01:56 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-11 04:56 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 13:10 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 13:08 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 12:42 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 12:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mermaid-glory) [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $32.58 46.55 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $32.58 46.55 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) [ZaneTrain](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ZaneTrain) $121 173 coins $8.81 12.58 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) [EJma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/EJma) $121 173 coins $293 418 coins 2.41x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $121 173 coins $595 850 coins 4.90x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $121 173 coins $8.81 12.58 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $121 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $122 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 18.9% classified 2.0% restricted 26.8% extraordinary 2.3% consumer 50.0% best hit $1,939 (15.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt