--- title: "Mesh case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mesh ($97.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 76.04% over 66 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mesh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mesh A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh?window=all) Price · $97.71 · 140 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $88.83 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.04% · 66 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 57 openings · below min 30 days · 66 openings · below min since tracking started · 66 openings · below min 43.0% 78.8% 114.5% **Small sample.** 66 openings and 14.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh?window=7d) | 57 | 79.04% ±35.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh) | 66 | 76.04% ±32.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mesh?window=all) | 66 | 76.04% ±32.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,432 2,045 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $799 1,141 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $631 902 coins | 21.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $350 500 coins | 11.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $221 315 coins | 12.4% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× | | [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) | 10.0% | $116 166 coins | 13.1% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $109 156 coins | 18.4% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 10.0% | $65.72 93.89 coins | 7.4% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 10.8% | $57.26 81.8 coins | 7.0% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.40× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 15.0% | $15.07 21.53 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× | | [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.64 18.05 coins | 1.4% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $11.75 16.78 coins | 2.4% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.93× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $101 144 coins $622 889 coins 6.16x 2026-11-04 17:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mesh) [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $97.71 140 coins $57.26 81.8 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 03:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $97.71 140 coins $57.26 81.8 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 03:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $97.71 140 coins $57.26 81.8 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 03:09 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Luxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Luxi) $97.71 140 coins $221 315 coins 2.26x 2026-11-10 03:09 UTC [Souvenir Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $97.71 140 coins $12.64 18.05 coins 0.13x 2026-11-09 22:24 UTC [Souvenir Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $97.71 140 coins $12.64 18.05 coins 0.13x 2026-11-09 22:24 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $97.71 140 coins $116 166 coins 1.19x 2026-11-09 22:24 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $97.71 140 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 0.15x 2026-11-09 22:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [Clapster](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Clapster) $101 144 coins $56.85 81.22 coins 0.56x 2026-11-07 07:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 144 coins $117 167 coins 1.16x 2026-11-07 07:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $97.71 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $98.88 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 31.1% extraordinary 0.1% classified 30.0% restricted 10.8% mil spec 28.0% best hit $622 (6.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt