--- title: "Meteor case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Meteor ($863.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 47.24% over 228 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Meteor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Meteor A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor?window=all) Price · $863.17 · 1,233 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $784.70 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.24% · 228 openings, odds method Variance · 36.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 47.41% ±79.80 219 openings 30 days · 47.24% ±78.20 228 openings since tracking started · 47.24% ±78.20 228 openings -0.5% 179.5% 359.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor?window=24h) | 12 | 15.15% ±343.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor?window=7d) | 219 | 47.41% ±79.8 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor) | 228 | 47.24% ±78.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/meteor?window=all) | 228 | 47.24% ±78.2 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) + 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $140K 200,000 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $105K 150,000 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $98K 140,000 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $70K 100,000 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $12K 17,180 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 286 | $7,252 10,360 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,817 8,310 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 10.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,281 6,115 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $2,037 2,910 coins | 1.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 19.0% | 9 | 18.2 | 0.49× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 28 | $1,545 2,207 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 11 | $709 1,013 coins | 8.1% | 16 | 20.5 | 0.78× | | [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.58 3.68 coins | 0.1% | 68 | 57.0 | 1.19× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $2.34 3.34 coins | 0.1% | 56 | 57.0 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) | 25.0% | $1.53 2.18 coins | 0.0% | 63 | 57.0 | 1.11× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) Hidden $873 1,247 coins $24.5K 35,000 coins 28.07x 2026-11-08 09:22 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 6.59x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $873 1,247 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 6.52x 2026-11-07 17:27 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $873 1,247 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 5.92x 2026-11-08 09:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $5,156 7,365 coins 5.97x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) [Mopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mopper) $873 1,247 coins $2,090 2,985 coins 2.39x 2026-11-08 14:46 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $873 1,247 coins $2,090 2,985 coins 2.39x 2026-11-06 12:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [Mopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mopper) $873 1,247 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 2.23x 2026-11-08 12:04 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [Mopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mopper) $873 1,247 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 2.23x 2026-11-08 09:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $873 1,247 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 2.23x 2026-11-08 09:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=meteor) [SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $863 1,233 coins $1,545 2,207 coins 1.79x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $863 1,233 coins $2.34 3.34 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) Hidden $863 1,233 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) [marchesi✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/marchesi%E2%9C%AA) $863 1,233 coins $2.34 3.34 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $863 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $863 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $863 | 90.91% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $873 | 90.91% | 23 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $873 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $873 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 9.9% extraordinary 8.2% covert 5.8% contraband 1.0% restricted 50.0% consumer 25.0% best hit $24.5K (28.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt