--- title: "Midas Touch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Midas Touch ($232.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.96% over 218 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Midas Touch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Midas Touch A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch?window=all) Price · $232.27 · 332 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $211.16 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.96% · 218 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 34.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 95.21% ±22.53 178 openings 30 days · 93.96% ±20.38 218 openings since tracking started · 93.96% ±20.38 218 openings -0.5% 72.8% 146.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch?window=24h) | 14 | 65.87% ±79.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch?window=7d) | 178 | 95.21% ±22.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch) | 218 | 93.96% ±20.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/midas-touch?window=all) | 218 | 93.96% ±20.4 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 219 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.83× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 5.0% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $659 942 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $434 620 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 30.0% | $207 296 coins | 29.4% | 71 | 65.7 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 16.0% | $197 281 coins | 14.9% | 28 | 35.0 | 0.80× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 30.0% | $174 248 coins | 24.7% | 68 | 65.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 20.0% | $58.98 84.26 coins | 5.6% | 44 | 43.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $231 331 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 20.00x 2026-11-06 20:37 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $231 331 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 8.06x 2026-11-07 17:56 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $231 331 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 8.06x 2026-11-07 17:53 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $231 331 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.68x 2026-11-07 17:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [Stump](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Stump) $231 331 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.68x 2026-11-07 16:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $231 331 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.68x 2026-11-03 20:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $231 331 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 4.68x 2026-11-03 19:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $233 332 coins $659 942 coins 2.83x 2026-11-08 16:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=midas-touch) [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $232 332 coins $174 248 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $58.98 84.26 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $174 248 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $174 248 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $58.98 84.26 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $197 281 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 02:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $207 296 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 02:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) [Gyzmo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gyzmo) $232 332 coins $197 281 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 01:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $207 296 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 22:48 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $232 332 coins $174 248 coins 0.75x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $232 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $232 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $231 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 99.0% epic 1.0% best hit $4,631 (20.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt