---
title: "Mindful case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mindful ($142.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 80.64% over 312 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mindful](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mindful

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful?window=all)

Price · $142.23 · 203 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $129.30 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.64% · 312 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 67.40% ±37.54 211 openings

30 days · 80.64% ±30.87 312 openings

since tracking started · 80.64% ±30.87 312 openings

-0.5% 116.0% 232.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful?window=24h) | 12 | 74.37% ±157.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful?window=7d) | 211 | 67.40% ±37.5 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful) | 312 | 80.64% ±30.9 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mindful?window=all) | 312 | 80.64% ±30.9 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,787 9,695 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,548 7,925 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,281 6,115 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $3,024 4,320 coins | 7.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 250 | $1,520 2,172 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.60× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,453 2,075 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $918 1,312 coins | 5.3% | 7 | 2.3 | 2.99× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $685 978 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $603 862 coins | 14.0% | 3 | 9.4 | 0.32× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $477 682 coins | 22.2% | 14 | 18.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $285 407 coins | 8.8% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $241 345 coins | 3.7% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.28× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $222 317 coins | 11.4% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 37.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 122 | 117.0 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 37.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 118 | 117.0 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 207 coins $2,979 4,255 coins 20.60x 2026-11-04 13:46 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) [gurkan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gurkan) $145 207 coins $1,612 2,303 coins 11.15x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $145 207 coins $1,612 2,303 coins 11.15x 2026-11-04 10:43 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $145 207 coins $1,491 2,130 coins 10.31x 2026-11-07 09:03 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $145 207 coins $1,491 2,130 coins 10.31x 2026-11-03 07:57 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $145 207 coins $981 1,402 coins 6.79x 2026-11-07 17:49 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $145 207 coins $981 1,402 coins 6.79x 2026-11-07 08:56 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $145 207 coins $981 1,402 coins 6.79x 2026-11-06 00:05 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $145 207 coins $981 1,402 coins 6.79x 2026-11-05 18:11 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $145 207 coins $981 1,402 coins 6.79x 2026-11-04 13:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mindful)

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-well-worn) Hidden $142 203 coins $222 317 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $142 203 coins $285 407 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) Hidden $142 203 coins $477 682 coins 3.36x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $142 203 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $142 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $145 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.4% extraordinary 12.6% epic 2.0% consumer 75.0% best hit $2,979 (20.60x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt