--- title: "Mirage case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mirage ($17.74) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 13 items with odds, observed 92.95% over 8,893 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mirage A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage?window=all) Price · $17.74 · 25.34 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $16.13 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.95% · 8,893 openings, odds method Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.02% ±18.68 871 openings 7 days · 93.28% ±6.30 7,665 openings 30 days · 92.95% ±5.85 8,893 openings since tracking started · 92.95% ±5.85 8,893 openings 62.5% 82.0% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage?window=24h) | 871 | 82.02% ±18.7 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage?window=7d) | 7,665 | 93.28% ±6.30 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage) | 8,893 | 92.95% ±5.85 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirage?window=all) | 8,893 | 92.95% ±5.85 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,937 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,119 1,598 coins | 6.9% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.78× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $207 295 coins | 5.1% | 48 | 35.7 | 1.34× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $174 248 coins | 4.3% | 31 | 35.7 | 0.87× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $160 229 coins | 4.0% | 37 | 35.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $151 216 coins | 11.2% | 102 | 107.2 | 0.95× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $121 173 coins | 22.5% | 300 | 268.1 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $107 153 coins | 13.3% | 196 | 178.7 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $34.52 49.31 coins | 10.7% | 429 | 446.9 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $30.86 44.08 coins | 16.3% | 717 | 759.6 | 0.94× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $22.48 32.12 coins | 5.6% | 381 | 357.5 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 2,288 | 2234.3 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 2,159 | 2234.3 | 0.97× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,242 | 2234.3 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.88 25.55 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 63.41x 2026-11-06 09:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.88 25.55 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 63.41x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.88 25.55 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 63.41x 2026-11-04 13:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 63.06x 2026-11-10 14:16 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 63.06x 2026-11-09 17:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 63.06x 2026-11-09 16:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 63.06x 2026-11-09 15:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $1,119 1,598 coins 63.06x 2026-11-08 20:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mirage) [Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $22.48 32.12 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Stitch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Stitch) $17.74 25.34 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $17.74 25.34 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $17.74 25.34 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $17.74 | 90.92% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.74 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.86 | 90.90% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.88 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.1% covert 4.4% restricted 11.5% mil spec 5.0% classified 4.0% consumer 75.0% best hit $1,134 (63.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt