--- title: "Mirei case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mirei ($775.44) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 53.19% over 46 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mirei](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mirei A case on CSGORoll (partners, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei?window=all) Price · $775.44 · 1,108 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $704.94 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.19% · 46 openings, odds method Variance · 16.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 46 openings · below min since tracking started · 46 openings · below min -0.5% 153.8% 308.0% **Small sample.** 46 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei?window=24h) | 8 | 22.14% ±285.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei?window=7d) | 46 | 53.19% ±118.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei) | 46 | 53.19% ±118.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mirei?window=all) | 46 | 53.19% ±118.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 18.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $12K 17,180 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 250 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $4,277 6,110 coins | 12.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $4,025 5,750 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $3,941 5,630 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $3,458 4,940 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $2,426 3,465 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 33 | $2,177 3,110 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 10.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1,373 1,962 coins | 7.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $489 699 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 37.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 15 | 17.3 | 0.87× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 37.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 21 | 17.3 | 1.22× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $776 1,109 coins $4,270 6,100 coins 5.50x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $776 1,109 coins $2,202 3,145 coins 2.84x 2026-11-08 01:57 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $776 1,109 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 2.71x 2026-11-05 19:31 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $776 1,109 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 2.71x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $776 1,109 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 2.71x 2026-11-04 21:43 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $775 1,108 coins $1,559 2,227 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $776 1,109 coins $1,378 1,968 coins 1.77x 2026-11-04 21:45 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $775 1,108 coins $1,373 1,962 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $777 1,110 coins $1,373 1,962 coins 1.77x 2026-11-08 15:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $776 1,109 coins $513 733 coins 0.66x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mirei) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $775 1,108 coins $1,373 1,962 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $775 1,108 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $775 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $776 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.2% contraband 2.2% extraordinary 6.3% covert 15.9% remarkable 0.4% consumer 75.0% best hit $4,270 (5.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt