--- title: "Mismatch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mismatch ($350.06) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 94.01% over 93 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mismatch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mismatch A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch?window=all) Price · $350.06 · 500 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $318.24 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.01% · 93 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 38.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 93 openings · below min 30 days · 93 openings · below min since tracking started · 93 openings · below min 43.5% 83.8% 124.0% **Small sample.** 93 openings and 35.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch?window=24h) | 18 | 83.70% ±39.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch?window=7d) | 93 | 94.01% ±17.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch) | 93 | 94.01% ±17.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mismatch?window=all) | 93 | 94.01% ±17.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $2,681 3,830 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,401 3,430 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 1 in 20 | $891 1,273 coins | 14.0% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $552 788 coins | 24.3% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 18.0% | $460 657 coins | 26.0% | 16 | 16.7 | 0.96× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 24.0% | $388 554 coins | 29.2% | 20 | 22.3 | 0.90× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $204 291 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 12.4% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 0.1% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.0% | 14 | 10.2 | 1.37× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-well-worn) | 12.0% | $0.80 1.14 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 11.2 | 0.54× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $342 488 coins $939 1,341 coins 2.75x 2026-11-05 23:33 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $342 488 coins $939 1,341 coins 2.75x 2026-11-04 23:56 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $342 488 coins $939 1,341 coins 2.75x 2026-11-04 21:28 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $342 488 coins $939 1,341 coins 2.75x 2026-11-04 21:27 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $350 500 coins $891 1,273 coins 2.55x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $350 500 coins $891 1,273 coins 2.55x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) [Cecil Tyler](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cecil%20Tyler) $350 500 coins $891 1,273 coins 2.55x 2026-11-09 17:19 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) [Cecil Tyler](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cecil%20Tyler) $350 500 coins $891 1,273 coins 2.55x 2026-11-09 17:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $342 488 coins $561 802 coins 1.64x 2026-11-05 23:33 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $342 488 coins $561 802 coins 1.64x 2026-11-05 23:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mismatch) [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $350 500 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $350 500 coins $460 657 coins 1.31x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $350 500 coins $388 554 coins 1.11x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $350 500 coins $891 1,273 coins 2.55x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $350 500 coins $388 554 coins 1.11x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [Sloth](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sloth) $350 500 coins $552 788 coins 1.58x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $350 500 coins $0.95 1.36 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) Hidden $350 500 coins $891 1,273 coins 2.55x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $350 500 coins $460 657 coins 1.31x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Cecil Tyler](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cecil%20Tyler) $350 500 coins $460 657 coins 1.31x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $342 | 90.91% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $342 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $342 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.6% restricted 38.4% classified 11.0% best hit $939 (2.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt