---
title: "Mitosis case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mitosis ($295.24) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 26 items with odds, observed 90.05% over 28 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mitosis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mitosis

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis?window=all)

Price · $295.24 · 422 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $268.40 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.05% · 28 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 28 openings · below min

30 days · 28 openings · below min

since tracking started · 28 openings · below min

-0.5% 97.0% 194.5%

**Small sample.** 28 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis?window=24h) | 12 | 45.19% ±148.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis?window=7d) | 28 | 90.05% ±96.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis) | 28 | 90.05% ±96.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mitosis?window=all) | 28 | 90.05% ±96.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,930 5,615 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,454 3,505 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 74 | $1,606 2,294 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1,474 2,105 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $895 1,279 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $865 1,235 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $793 1,133 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $617 882 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $582 832 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $374 534 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $319 455 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $274 391 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $255 364 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $206 294 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.14× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $127 181 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $123 176 coins | 6.9% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $111 159 coins | 3.3% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 13.0% | $84.70 121 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.27× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) | 10.0% | $74.20 106 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 20.5% | $42.24 60.34 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 5.8 | 0.35× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $297 424 coins $878 1,254 coins 2.95x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) Hidden $297 424 coins $865 1,235 coins 2.91x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) Hidden $297 424 coins $865 1,235 coins 2.91x 2026-11-04 21:33 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $295 422 coins $793 1,133 coins 2.69x 2026-11-08 17:27 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $297 424 coins $635 907 coins 2.14x 2026-11-04 21:20 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $297 424 coins $593 847 coins 2.00x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mitosis)

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $295 422 coins $42.24 60.34 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $295 422 coins $206 294 coins 0.70x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) Hidden $295 422 coins $111 159 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $295 422 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) Hidden $295 422 coins $111 159 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $295 422 coins $74.20 106 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $295 422 coins $123 176 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $295 422 coins $123 176 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $295 422 coins $206 294 coins 0.70x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $295 422 coins $74.20 106 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $295 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $295 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $297 | 90.91% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 67.1% legendary 0.6% extraordinary 4.3% restricted 15.0% classified 13.0% best hit $878 (2.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt