--- title: "Mix Up case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mix Up ($68.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 98.00% over 98 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mix Up](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mix Up A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up?window=all) Price · $68.13 · 97.33 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $61.94 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.00% · 98 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 98 openings · below min since tracking started · 98 openings · below min 77.5% 99.8% 122.0% **Small sample.** 98 openings and 28.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up?window=7d) | 32 | 99.71% ±21.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up) | 98 | 98.00% ±12.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mix-up?window=all) | 98 | 98.00% ±12.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $335 478 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $134 192 coins | 4.3% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $110 157 coins | 3.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.04× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 15.0% | $106 151 coins | 25.6% | 16 | 14.7 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $98.00 140 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $96.60 138 coins | 10.9% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $91.00 130 coins | 4.4% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $85.40 122 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $78.40 112 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $77.00 110 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.44× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $65.07 92.95 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $55.94 79.92 coins | 3.6% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $54.62 78.03 coins | 2.6% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $51.29 73.27 coins | 5.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.19× | | [Sticker \| crush (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crush-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 17 | $40.84 58.34 coins | 4.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.19× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 15.0% | $29.48 42.11 coins | 7.1% | 8 | 14.7 | 0.54× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 17.5% | $4.61 6.58 coins | 1.3% | 16 | 17.1 | 0.93× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mix-up) [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) [sbears](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sbears) $68.13 97.33 coins $4.61 6.58 coins 0.07x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $106 151 coins 1.55x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $106 151 coins 1.55x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $54.62 78.03 coins 0.80x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $110 157 coins 1.61x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $96.60 138 coins 1.42x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $4.61 6.58 coins 0.07x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) [Heego](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Heego) $68.13 97.33 coins $4.61 6.58 coins 0.07x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $96.60 138 coins 1.42x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $68.13 97.33 coins $54.62 78.03 coins 0.80x 2026-11-09 13:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $68.13 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $67.96 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $68.32 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 31.5% classified 2.0% red 15.0% industrial 20.5% mil spec 18.0% restricted 7.0% remarkable 6.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt